策略深度研究：香港资产重估进入新阶段-

Group 1: Market Outlook - External negative factors are improving faster than expected, suggesting the market may reach new heights in the second half of the year[2] - The Hang Seng Index has the potential to break resistance levels with only a risk sentiment adjustment needed[3] - The third round of the Hong Kong stock market rally may start earlier than previously anticipated, driven by the Hang Seng Technology Index[12] Group 2: Investment Strategy - Focus on sectors with improving sentiment and low valuations, such as e-commerce and local services, which are showing signs of stabilization[3] - The technology sector is at the intersection of recovery and low valuation, making it suitable for institutional investors to "buy low"[3] - The coal, cement, and cyclical goods sectors may accelerate their recovery due to the "anti-involution" policy[3] Group 3: Capital Flow and Valuation - Southbound trading accounts for 40% of the turnover, indicating a shift in the importance of foreign capital in the Hong Kong market[5] - The AH premium is expected to decrease to around 26% or lower, driven by a weaker dollar and market dynamics[6] - Corporate earnings are improving, with the MSCI China Index's EPS expected to rise for the third consecutive year in 2025[7] Group 4: Long-term Investment Themes - Two long-term investment themes are highlighted: large financials and technology, which are seen as core assets for differentiated allocation in the Hong Kong market[7] - The Hong Kong capital market is undergoing profound changes, with policies supporting its status as an international financial center[7]