瑞达期货棉花（纱）产业日报-20250723

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core Viewpoints - Cotton is in a de - stocking state, and supply is tight before the new cotton is on the market. The textile industry is in a consumption off - season, with poor new orders, a continuous decline in the overall operating rate, and cautious raw material procurement [2]. - In 2025, China's overall cotton planting area has increased, but some areas in Xinjiang are at high risk of heat damage due to high - temperature weather. - The previous continuous rise in cotton futures prices has digested the bullish factor of tight supply. As prices rise, downstream procurement is cautious, and the market is lackluster. Currently, it shows an adjustment trend. It is necessary to continuously monitor weather and macro factors. It is recommended to take profits and exit long positions opportunistically [2]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - Zhengzhou cotton's main contract closed at 14,180 yuan/ton, down 45 yuan; the main contract of cotton yarn closed at 20,350 yuan/ton, down 80 yuan [2]. - The net position of the top 20 in cotton futures was - 35,705 lots, down 306 lots; the net position of the top 20 in cotton yarn futures was - 447 lots, down 182 lots [2]. - The main - contract trading volume of cotton was 538,200 lots, down 15,967 lots; the main - contract trading volume of cotton yarn was 13,848 lots, down 1,269 lots [2]. - The number of cotton warehouse receipts was 9,382, down 54; the number of cotton yarn warehouse receipts was 96, unchanged [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - The China Cotton Price Index (CCIndex:3128B) was 15,543 yuan/ton, down 6 yuan; the China Yarn Price Index for pure - combed 32 - count cotton yarn was 20,740 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - The China Imported Cotton Price Index (FCIndexM:1% tariff) was 13,728 yuan/ton, up 35 yuan; the arrival price of imported cotton yarn for pure - combed 32 - count cotton yarn was 22,080 yuan/ton, down 23 yuan [2]. - The China Imported Cotton Price Index (FCIndexM:sliding - scale tariff) was 14,438 yuan/ton, up 24 yuan; the arrival price of imported cotton yarn for pure - combed 32 - count cotton yarn was 23,955 yuan/ton, down 24 yuan [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The national cotton sowing area was 2,838.3 thousand hectares, an increase of 48.3 thousand hectares; the national cotton output was 6.16 million tons, an increase of 540,000 tons [2]. - The cotton - yarn price difference was 5,197 yuan/ton, up 6 yuan; the national industrial inventory of cotton was 850,000 tons, an increase of 24,000 tons [2]. 3.4 Industry Situation - The monthly import volume of cotton was 30,000 tons, a decrease of 10,000 tons; the monthly import volume of cotton yarn was 110,000 tons, an increase of 10,000 tons [2]. - The daily profit from imported cotton was 1,135 yuan/ton, up 24 yuan; the national commercial inventory of cotton was 2.8298 million tons, a decrease of 628,900 tons [2]. 3.5 Downstream Situation - The monthly yarn inventory days were 23.86 days, an increase of 1.52 days; the monthly inventory days of grey cloth were 35.46 days, an increase of 2.57 days [2]. - The monthly cloth output was 2.779 billion meters, an increase of 109 million meters; the monthly yarn output was 2.065 million tons, an increase of 114,000 tons [2]. - The monthly export value of clothing and clothing accessories was 1.5266714 billion US dollars, an increase of 168.8977 million US dollars; the monthly export value of textile yarns, fabrics and products was 1.2048207 billion US dollars, a decrease of 58.3566 million US dollars [2]. 3.6 Option Market - The implied volatility of at - the - money call options for cotton was 13.24%, up 0.7%; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options for cotton was 13.24%, up 0.7% [2]. - The 20 - day historical volatility of cotton was 8.02%, down 0.55%; the 60 - day historical volatility of cotton was 8.59%, down 0.44% [2]. 3.7 Industry News - As of the week ending July 20, 2025, the good - to - excellent rate of US cotton was 57%, compared with 54% the previous week and 53% in the same period last year [2]. - On Tuesday, the December ICE cotton contract rose 0.25%, the cotton 2509 contract rose 0.04%, and the cotton yarn 2509 contract fell 0.2%. Due to the upward revision of the US cotton crop rating and the forecast of rainfall in production areas, the US cotton futures price was under pressure. The third round of China - US trade negotiations will be held in Stockholm, Sweden, on Monday and Tuesday [2].