固收专题：市场预期差修正，股债配置有望切换-250723-去水印

Report Overview - Report Title: "Market Expectation Gap Correction, Potential Switch in Stock-Bond Allocation" [2] - Report Date: July 23, 2025 - Research Team: Fixed Income Research Team - Analysts: Chen Xi, Liu Wei Report Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Views - In the second half of 2025, the economic cycle is in an upward phase, similar to 2016 - 2017, in the second half of the L-shaped cycle [5]. - The key to the market rally is the correction of the expectation gap. Currently, the pricing in the stock, bond, and commodity markets is weak, and the upward correction of the market expectation gap may drive the market up [6]. - With the economic expectation correction, there may be a switch between stocks and bonds. The bond yield and the stock market are expected to rise [9]. Summary by Relevant Catalog Economic Upward Trend in H2 2025 - The local debt resolution plan launched in November 2024 may drive the economy to recover continuously, as past debt rectification periods were followed by economic rebounds [5]. - After the digestion of policies from 2021 - September 2024 and structural transformation, the year - on - year growth rate of social financing stock has been rising since November 2024 [5]. - The supply - side anti - involution measure proposed on July 1, 2025, is conducive to the recovery of the PPI year - on - year rate, similar to the 2015 supply - side reform [5]. Market Expectation Gap and Its Impact - As of July 22, 2025, the equity risk premium rate of the Wind All - A Index was 3.14%, at the 72.1% percentile in the past 10 years; the 10 - year Treasury yield was 1.69%, at the 4.0% percentile in the past 10 years; the Nanhua Industrial Products Index was at the 43.2% percentile from 2022 to the present, indicating weak pricing in the market [6]. - The market's weak pricing is based on the view that the full - year GDP target of 5.0% is easy to achieve (with H1 GDP growth at 5.3%), leading to low expectations for H2 policies. However, there is a significant expectation gap in the market's pricing of the economic recovery [6]. - The all - around policies from July 2025 are expected to gradually realize the market's expectation of economic recovery, forming a positive feedback loop for market confidence and expectations [7]. Stock - Bond Switch - The economy is similar to that in 2016 - 2017, in the second half of the L - shaped cycle. The economic growth rate in H2 2025 is not expected to decline significantly, and with the solution of structural problems, there may be a switch between stocks and bonds, with bond yields and the stock market expected to rise [9].