瑞达期货塑料产业日报-20250723

Group 1: Report's Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core Views - From July 11th to 17th, China's polyethylene production was 609,100 tons, a 0.52% increase, and the capacity utilization rate was 78.68%, up 0.89 percentage points [2]. - From July 11th to 17th, the average operating rate of China's polyethylene downstream products increased by 0.64% [2]. - As of July 3rd, the sample inventory of Chinese polyethylene producers was 502,900 tons, a 4.99% decrease; as of July 18th, the social sample warehouse inventory of polyethylene was 558,400 tons, a 4.07% increase [2]. - The total inventory pressure is not large. In July, PE maintenance plans were basically fulfilled. With the restart of shutdown devices, production and capacity utilization are expected to rise in the second half of the month [2]. - ExxonMobil and PetroChina Jilin's new petrochemical devices are expected to be put into production this month, which may increase industry supply pressure in the medium - to - long term [2]. - Recently, the downstream operating rate has rebounded driven by demand for packaging films, but the seasonal inflection point cannot be confirmed due to the unimproved data of agricultural film orders and operating rates [2]. - Short - term international oil prices are expected to fluctuate due to uncertainties in US - EU tariff negotiations and OPEC +'s September output policy [2]. - Market sentiment towards previous supply - side policy benefits has subsided, and attention should be paid to the implementation of policies for eliminating backward production capacity in the industry [2]. - For the daily K - line of L2509, pay attention to the support around 7230 and the resistance around 7400 [2]. Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the main polyethylene futures contract was 7,288 yuan/ton, a decrease of 80 yuan; the 1 - month contract was 7,346 yuan/ton, down 70 yuan; the 5 - month contract was 7,346 yuan/ton, down 74 yuan; the 9 - month contract was 7,288 yuan/ton, down 80 yuan [2]. - The trading volume was 313,961 lots, a decrease of 70,212 lots, and the open interest was 388,381 lots, a decrease of 5,767 lots [2]. - The spread between the 1 - month and 5 - month contracts was 0, an increase of 4 [2]. - The buy order volume of the top 20 futures positions was 341,150 lots, a decrease of 12,098 lots; the sell order volume was 383,471 lots, an increase of 4,109 lots; the net buy order volume was - 42,321 lots, a decrease of 16,207 lots [2]. Spot Market - The average price of LLDPE (7042) in North China was 7,286.52 yuan/ton, an increase of 43.91 yuan; in East China, it was 7,345.37 yuan/ton, an increase of 33.9 yuan [2]. - The basis was - 1.48, an increase of 123.91 [2]. Upstream Situation - The FOB mid - price of naphtha in Singapore was 60.4 US dollars/barrel, a decrease of 0.73 US dollars; the CFR mid - price of naphtha in Japan was 566.38 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 6.5 US dollars [2]. - The CFR mid - price of ethylene in Southeast Asia was 831 US dollars/ton, unchanged; in Northeast Asia, it was 821 US dollars/ton, unchanged [2]. Industry Situation - The national operating rate of PE in petrochemical plants was 78.21%, an increase of 0.43 percentage points [2]. Downstream Situation - The operating rate of polyethylene (PE) packaging film was 48.59%, an increase of 0.52 percentage points; for pipes, it was 28.83%, an increase of 0.83 percentage points; for agricultural films, it was 12.46%, a decrease of 0.17 percentage points [2]. Option Market - The 20 - day historical volatility of polyethylene was 9.02%, an increase of 0.96 percentage points; the 40 - day historical volatility was 12.56%, an increase of 0.03 percentage points [2]. - The implied volatility of at - the - money put options was 11.89%, a decrease of 1.95 percentage points; the implied volatility of at - the - money call options was 11.88%, a decrease of 1.96 percentage points [2].