瑞达期货烧碱产业日报-20250723

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - SH2509 is expected to show a short - term oscillatory trend, with the daily operating range estimated to be around 2570 - 2700. The supply - side policy利好 sentiment in the earlier stage has faded, and attention should be paid to the implementation of the policy on eliminating backward production capacity in the industry. The alumina operating capacity in China remains at a high level, and the amount of alkali sent to the main downstream by alkali plants has increased. The off - season demand of non - aluminum downstream is weak, mainly for rigid demand, and some enterprises resist high prices. The utilization rate of production capacity is expected to maintain an upward trend, but the limited receiving capacity of the liquid chlorine downstream may drag down the profit of chlor - alkali and limit the upward space of the operating rate [1] Summary by Related Catalogs Futures Market - The main closing price of caustic soda is 2644 yuan/ton, down 14 yuan; the futures trading volume is 752433 lots, down 277186 lots; the futures holding volume is 189077 lots, down 19374 lots; the net holding volume of the top 20 futures is - 7630 lots, up 4809 lots. The closing price of the January contract is 2655 yuan/ton, down 44 yuan; the closing price of the May contract is 2723 yuan/ton, down 40 yuan [1] Spot Market - The price of 32% ion - membrane caustic soda in Shandong is 830 yuan/ton, unchanged; in Jiangsu, it is 900 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan. The converted - to - 100% price of 32% caustic soda in Shandong is 2593.75 yuan/ton, unchanged; the basis of caustic soda is - 50 yuan/ton, up 14 yuan [1] Upstream Situation - The mainstream price of raw salt in Shandong is 210 yuan/ton, unchanged; in the Northwest, it is 220 yuan/ton, unchanged. The price of thermal coal is 637 yuan/ton, unchanged [1] Industry Situation - The mainstream price of liquid chlorine in Shandong is - 550 yuan/ton, down 100 yuan; in Jiangsu, it is - 225 yuan/ton, unchanged [1] Downstream Situation - The spot price of viscose staple fiber is 12940 yuan/ton, unchanged; the spot price of alumina is 3215 yuan/ton, up 55 yuan. From July 11th to 17th, the average utilization rate of production capacity of Chinese caustic soda sample enterprises with a capacity of 200,000 tons and above was 82.6%, up 2.2% week - on - week. As of July 17th, the factory inventory of fixed liquid caustic soda sample enterprises with a capacity of 200,000 tons and above nationwide was 383,900 tons (wet tons), up 2.56% week - on - week and 1.78% year - on - year [1] Industry News - The utilization rate of caustic soda production capacity last week increased by 2.2% to 82.6%. The alumina operating rate increased by 0.33% to 83.61%, and the average profit of alumina was 360.7 yuan/ton. The viscose staple fiber operating rate increased by 6.75% to 84.55%, and the printing and dyeing operating rate remained stable at 58.9%. The liquid caustic soda factory inventory increased by 2.56% to 383,900 tons [1]