Group 1 - The report highlights that in the first half of 2025, China's CPI averaged -0.1% year-on-year, and PPI averaged -2.8%, indicating a downward trend compared to the second half of 2024 [3][19] - The report emphasizes that while China is not in a "deflation" situation, the low interest rate and low price environment necessitates analyzing how other economies have responded to deflationary pressures [19][4] - The report outlines that deflation is characterized by a continuous decline in money supply and prices, leading to economic recession, and is self-reinforcing through a "debt-deflation" cycle [20][21] Group 2 - The report discusses Japan's response to deflation from 1999 to 2003, where it implemented large-scale fiscal expansion and introduced a 2% inflation target alongside quantitative easing [26][29] - The report also details the U.S. response during the 2008 financial crisis, which included aggressive monetary policy easing and fiscal measures such as tax rebates and support for struggling companies [47][57] - The report predicts that China's inflation may see a mild recovery in the second half of 2025, while PPI is expected to remain low but with a narrowing decline [4][8] Group 3 - The report analyzes the structure of CPI, noting that high-weight categories such as food and housing are experiencing price declines, which significantly suppresses overall CPI [5][80] - It highlights that the PPI structure shows a significant impact from production materials, which account for approximately 75.34% of PPI, with energy and raw materials experiencing substantial price drops [4][85] - The report indicates that despite policies aimed at stimulating consumption, the transmission of these policies to price increases has been limited due to structural issues in the economy [74][84]
从国际到本土：物价低迷应对策略及中国趋势分析—低利率时代系列（七）
Soochow Securities·2025-07-23 09:18