2025Q2被动和主动权益型公募基金持股分析：关注显著低配的顺周期资产

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In 2025Q2, the scale of passive funds (ETF) reached a new high, and the scale of Hong Kong stock - related ETFs increased significantly. The allocation of active equity funds to Hong Kong stocks continued to hit a new high. The profitability of active equity - type public funds continued to improve, but there was still some redemption pressure, with a potential for a reversal throughout the year. A - share industry allocation showed加仓 in communication, media, agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, fishery, military industry, and finance, and减仓 in automobile, food and beverage, social services, power equipment, and steel [5][6][7]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogues 3.1 Passive - type funds (ETF) scale reaches a new high, and Hong Kong stock ETF scale increases significantly - In 2025Q2, the total scale of stock - type ETFs was approximately 3 trillion yuan, and the proportion of stock - holding market value reached 3.7%, a record high. The stock - holding market value proportion of active equity - type public funds decreased to 3.0% in 25Q2 after reaching its peak in 2021 (6.2%). In broad - based ETFs, the shares of CSI 300 and CSI 1000 increased significantly, by 241 and 115 million shares respectively. In industry ETFs, the shares of bank, liquor, semiconductor, artificial intelligence, robot, military, gold, and rare earth ETFs increased significantly compared with 25Q1 [5]. - The shares of Hong Kong stock - related ETFs increased significantly, mainly due to the incremental contributions from Internet, innovative drugs, finance, and high - dividend sectors. In 25Q2, the shares of Hong Kong stock - related ETFs increased by 3.83 billion shares compared with 25Q1, and the scale increased by 56.1 billion yuan. The shares of Hang Seng Tech, Hong Kong Internet, Hong Kong technology, innovative drugs, finance, and high - dividend ETFs increased by 1.65, 1.05, 1.29, 0.93, 0.26, and 0.24 billion shares respectively, being the main increments [5]. 3.2 Total perspective: The profitability of public funds continues to improve, but there is still some redemption pressure - From the beginning of 2025, public funds maintained a high position, and the profitability continued to improve, with a potential for further reversal throughout the year. In 2025Q2, the overall positions of ordinary stock - type and flexible - allocation funds increased by 0.6 and 0.5 percentage points to 88.9% and 75.4% respectively, and the position of partial - stock hybrid funds remained basically the same as the previous quarter at 87.2%, all at relatively high historical levels. Since the beginning of 2025, the median net value increase of active equity - type public funds was 7.4%, only weaker than the China Securities 2000 and CSI 1000, and stronger than the STAR 50, ChiNext Index, CSI 500, Shanghai Composite Index, and CSI 300 [5][27]. - In 25Q2, active equity - type public funds issued 3.72 billion new fund shares, while the existing funds redeemed 10.84 billion shares, with a net redemption of 7.12 billion shares in a single quarter. Although there is still some redemption pressure, if the market profitability further expands, the redemption pressure is expected to ease, and the annual performance of public funds is expected to reverse [6]. 3.3 Regional and sectoral allocation: The allocation of Hong Kong stocks continues to hit a new high - In terms of A - share sectors, active equity - type public funds increased their positions in the ChiNext and reduced their positions in the main board in 25Q2. The proportion of the main board decreased by 2.6 percentage points to 54.1%, while the proportions of the ChiNext and the Science and Technology Innovation Board increased by 1.4 and 0.2 percentage points to 13.7% and 11.9% respectively. The proportion of Hong Kong stocks was 20.0% [53]. - The allocation of Hong Kong - stock connect companies continued to hit a new high. In 25Q2, the allocation proportion of Hong Kong - stock connect companies increased by 0.8 percentage points to 20.0%. The top five industries with increased allocation proportions were pharmaceutical biology (+6.2%), light industry manufacturing (+1.9%), non - banking (+1.7%), banking (+0.6%), and textile and apparel (+0.4%). The top three industries with decreased allocation proportions were commerce and retail (-4.4%), media (-3.0%), and automobile (-2.1%) [59]. 3.4 Industry allocation: A - shares increase positions in communication, media, agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, fishery, military industry, and finance, and reduce positions in automobile, food and beverage, social services, power equipment, and steel - In 25Q2, active equity - type public funds increased their positions in communication (25Q2 holding proportion 5.4%, allocation coefficient 1.86 times), agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery (25Q2 holding proportion 1.6%, allocation coefficient 1.36 times), media (25Q2 holding proportion 1.9%, allocation coefficient 1.09 times), national defense and military industry (25Q2 holding proportion 4.2%, allocation coefficient 1.43 times), non - banking finance (25Q2 holding proportion 1.9%, allocation coefficient 0.26 times), and bank (25Q2 holding proportion 4.9%, allocation coefficient 0.38 times), and reduced their positions in automobile (25Q2 holding proportion 6.3%, allocation coefficient 1.48 times), food and beverage (25Q2 holding proportion 6.8%, allocation coefficient 1.26 times), steel (25Q2 holding proportion 0.3%, allocation coefficient 0.34 times), social services (25Q2 holding proportion 0.4%, allocation coefficient 0.82 times), and power equipment (25Q2 holding proportion 9.9%, allocation coefficient 1.65 times) [7]. - The electronic industry's holding in 25Q2 remained at a high level of 18.8%, with semiconductors accounting for half. The industry's congestion was relatively high, and its offensive ability in the artificial intelligence chain might be ranked lower later. Attention should be paid to the computer industry, which was under - allocated from the capital side. The computer industry's holding proportion in 25Q2 was 2.6%, and the allocation coefficient was 0.56 times. With the implementation of the subsequent industrial chain, the computer industry is expected to start an upward channel of the profit cycle from the PB - ROE perspective [7]. 3.5 Crowding - degree consideration: In 25Q2, the electronic industry's holding proportion of 18.8% remained at a historical high. Under the absolute threshold of industry holding, the requirements for continued position - increasing and industry performance on prosperity are higher - The holding proportion of the electronic industry in 25Q2 reached 18.8%, the 98% quantile since 2010. The semiconductor's proportion in the structure reached 10.6%, almost also at the historical highest level. The current holding proportion of the electronic industry has approached 20%, and considering the "three - year limit" of stock price performance, its offensive ability in the second half of 2025 may be limited [7].