黑色产业数据每日监测-20250723

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided Group 2: Report's Core View - Short - term macro expectations are strong, and the continuous situation of billet exports should be monitored. The anti - involution drives the raw material positive feedback effect, and the market is regarded as fluctuating strongly [1] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Market Overview - On July 23, the overall upward trend of black commodity futures weakened, with coking coal leading the rise and hitting the daily limit. The closing price of rebar was 3274 yuan/ton, up 0.31%; the closing price of hot - rolled coil was 3438 yuan/ton, up 0.20%; the closing price of iron ore was 812 yuan/ton; coking coal and coke continued to rise sharply, and coking coal hit the daily limit [1] Market Analysis Macro Aspect - On July 18, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology plans to implement a new round of steady - growth work plans for ten key industries such as steel, non - ferrous metals, petrochemicals, and building materials. On July 19, the hydropower project in the lower reaches of the Yarlung Zangbo River started, which may set a record in investment scale, igniting the financial market's bullish sentiment and bringing imagination space for steel demand expansion [1] Supply Aspect - From July 14 to July 20, the global iron ore shipment volume was 31.091 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 1.22 million tons, reaching a three - week high. Australian shipments decreased by 1.089 million tons to 16.294 million tons, Brazilian shipments increased by 1.021 million tons to 9.226 million tons, and non - mainstream region shipments rose by more than 30%. Due to the previous decline in shipments, the arrival volume of overseas iron ore in Chinese ports decreased significantly, with the arrival volume at 47 ports being 25.118 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 3.714 million tons. Currently, the supply pressure of iron ore is not significant [1] Demand Aspect - High profits of steel mills drive the increase of molten iron production in the off - season. The profitability rate of 247 steel mills was 60.17%, a week - on - week increase of 0.43% and a year - on - year increase of 28.14%. The average daily molten iron production was 2.4244 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 26,300 tons and a year - on - year increase of 27,900 tons. The better - than - expected recovery of molten iron production indicates good demand for iron ore, which may have a positive impact on the market [1] Investment Suggestions - Iron ore: Monitor supply - demand changes and inventory levels, and avoid chasing high prices [1] - Rebar: Adopt a volatile trading strategy in the short term and pay attention to the spread between hot - rolled coil and rebar [1] - Hot - rolled coil: Adopt a high - level consolidation trading strategy in the short term and pay attention to supply - demand changes [1] - Coking coal and coke: Monitor the stable - after - decline oscillating market and the strength relationship between the two [1]