山金期货贵金属策略报告-20250723

1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information about the report industry investment rating in the provided content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The short - term trade war has entered a new stage, with risks of economic recession and geopolitical changes still existing. The risk of stagflation in the US economy has increased, and strong employment and inflation are suppressing the expectation of interest rate cuts [1]. - Gold is expected to be volatile and bullish in the short term, oscillate at a high level in the medium term, and rise step - by - step in the long term [1]. - The price trend of gold is the anchor for the price of silver. In terms of capital, CFTC silver net long positions and iShare silver ETF have resumed adding positions. In terms of inventory, the recent visible inventory of silver has slightly decreased [4]. - For investors, the strategy is that conservative investors should wait and see, while aggressive investors can buy low and sell high. It is recommended to manage positions well and set strict stop - loss and take - profit levels [5]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Gold - Price Performance: Today, precious metals were volatile and bullish. The main contract of Shanghai Gold closed up 0.90%, and the main contract of Shanghai Silver closed up 1.16%. International and domestic gold prices showed varying degrees of increase, such as the Comex gold main contract closing price rising 0.99% from the previous day and 3.41% from last week [1][2]. - Core Logic: Short - term trade war risks, stagflation risks in the US economy, and strong employment and inflation suppressing interest rate cut expectations [1]. - Attributes Analysis - Safe - haven Attribute: Trump has escalated the trade war, the prospect of the EU - US trade agreement is worrying, and the EU is considering using the "nuclear option" to counter the US. China and the US will restart trade talks in Sweden next week [1]. - Monetary Attribute: US economic data has weakened, the start of single - family homes has dropped to the lowest level in 11 months, and building permits have also decreased significantly. The market expects the Fed's next interest rate cut to be in September, and the expected total interest rate cut space in 2025 has fallen back to around 50 basis points. The US dollar index and US Treasury yields have fallen under pressure [1]. - Commodity Attribute: The rebound of the CRB commodity index is under pressure, and the strong RMB suppresses domestic prices [1]. - Position and Inventory Data: Comex gold and Shanghai Gold main contract positions have increased, while some inventories have decreased, such as the Comex gold inventory decreasing by 1.08% compared to last week [2]. - Net Position Ranking: The top 10 net long and net short positions of futures company members of Shanghai Gold Futures on the Shanghai Futures Exchange are listed, showing changes in positions of different members [3]. Silver - Price Performance: International and domestic silver prices also showed certain trends. For example, the Comex silver main contract closing price rose 1.07% from the previous day and 4.41% from last week [5]. - Fundamental Analysis: The price of gold is the anchor for the price of silver. CFTC silver net long positions and iShare silver ETF have resumed adding positions, and the recent visible inventory of silver has slightly decreased [4]. - Position and Inventory Data: Comex silver and some domestic silver positions have changed, and the visible inventory has decreased slightly [5]. - Net Position Ranking: The top 10 net long and net short positions of futures company members of Shanghai Silver Futures on the Shanghai Futures Exchange are presented, with changes in positions of different members [6]. Fundamental Key Data - Fed - related Data: The upper limit of the federal funds target rate, the discount rate, and the reserve balance interest rate have all decreased by 0.25 percentage points compared to the previous value. The Fed's total assets have decreased slightly, and M2 has increased by 0.37% year - on - year [7]. - US Economic Data: Various economic indicators such as inflation, economic growth, labor market, real estate market, consumption, and trade have shown different trends. For example, the 10 - year US Treasury real yield has decreased, and the GDP annualized growth rate has decreased [9]. - Other Data: Central bank gold reserves in China, the US, and the world remain stable. The proportion of different currencies in IMF foreign exchange reserves has changed, and the gold/foreign exchange reserve ratio has increased. Geopolitical risk and VIX indices have decreased, and the CRB commodity index has shown a slight change [10]. - Fed Interest Rate Expectation: According to the CME FedWatch tool, the probability of different interest rate ranges at different Fed meeting dates in the future is presented, showing the market's expectation of the Fed's interest rate adjustment [11].