Hopewind(SH:603063) Nan Hua Qi Huo·2025-07-23 11:05Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The market has high expectations for increased production in the 25/26 sugar - crushing season in India and Thailand, which suppresses sugar prices. However, due to the slightly slow production progress in Brazil currently and a high sugar - ethanol ratio, the expectation of a decline in Brazil's new - season production in the overseas market is continuously increasing, causing price fluctuations after a sharp drop in the overseas market. The domestic market is slightly stronger with the opening of the out - of - quota profit window, but the rebound strength may be limited [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Sugar Price Forecast and Risk Management Strategy - Price Range Forecast: The predicted monthly price range for sugar is 5700 - 5900, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 4.94% and a historical percentile (3 - year) of 0.1% [3]. - Inventory Management Strategy: For enterprises with high finished - product inventory worried about sugar price drops, they can short Zhengzhou sugar futures (SR2509) at 5850 - 5900 with a 25% hedging ratio. They can also sell call options (SR509C6000) at 30 - 40 with a 50% hedging ratio to collect premiums and lock in the spot selling price [3]. - Procurement Management Strategy: For enterprises with low procurement inventory and aiming to purchase according to orders, they can buy Zhengzhou sugar futures (SR2509) at 5750 - 5800 with a 50% hedging ratio. They can sell put options (SR509P5700) at 10 - 15 with a 75% hedging ratio to collect premiums and lock in the spot sugar purchase price [3]. 3.2 Core Contradictions - The high expectation of increased production in India and Thailand in the 25/26 season suppresses sugar prices, while the potential decline in Brazil's production in the new season causes price fluctuations in the overseas market. The domestic market is slightly stronger but with limited rebound strength [4]. 3.3利多解读 (Positive Factors) - Sales and Inventory in Guangxi: As of the end of June, Guangxi's cumulative sugar sales reached 514.06 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 61.44 million tons; the sales - to - production ratio was 79.51%, a year - on - year increase of 6.29 percentage points. In June, single - month sugar sales were 49.53 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 7.73 million tons. Industrial inventory was 132.44 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 33.08 million tons [5]. - Indian Sugar Inventory: The National Federation of Cooperative Sugar Factories (NFCSF) in India expects the ending sugar inventory in the 2024/25 season to be between 4.8 - 5 million tons, sufficient to meet domestic sugar consumption from October to November 2025 [5]. - Import Restrictions: China has suspended imports of Thai syrup and premixed powder [5]. - Brazilian Production: As of the first half of May in the 2025/26 season, the cumulative cane crushing volume in the central - southern region of Brazil was 76.714 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 19.466 million tons (20.24%); the cumulative sugar production was 3.989 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 1.17 million tons (22.68%) [5]. - Syrup and Premixed Powder Imports: In June, the total import of syrup and premixed powder was 115,500 tons, a significant year - on - year decrease of 103,500 tons [6]. - Brazilian Biofuel Policy: Brazil has increased the mandatory ethanol blending ratio in gasoline from 27% to 30% and the biodiesel ratio in diesel from 14% to 15% [6]. - Coca - Cola and Pepsi - Cola: Coca - Cola plans to re - use sugar as a beverage additive in the US and launch new sugar - containing cola products, and Pepsi - Cola may follow suit [8]. 3.4利空解读 (Negative Factors) - Guangxi Sugar Production: In the 2024/25 season, the cumulative cane crushing volume in Guangxi was 48.5954 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 2.5847 million tons; the mixed sugar production was 6.465 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 283,600 tons; the sugar production rate was 13.30%, a year - on - year increase of 1.22 percentage points [8]. - Brazilian Sugar Production Forecast: Analysis agency JOB expects Brazil's sugar production in the 25/26 season to increase by 5% to 46 million tons [8]. - Thai Sugar Production: Thailand's sugar production in the 24/25 season is expected to increase to 10.39 million tons [8]. - Indian Sugar Production Forecast: Due to favorable monsoon conditions and an increase in the minimum cane purchase price, the sugar production in India's 2025/26 season is expected to strongly recover to about 35 million tons [8]. - Sugar Imports: In June, the sugar import volume was 424,600 tons, a year - on - year increase of 397,000 tons, and the out - of - quota import profit window has opened [8]. 3.5 Price Data - Sugar Basis: On July 22, 2025, the basis of Nanning - SR01 was 397, with a daily increase of 7 and a weekly decrease of 28; the basis of Kunming - SR01 was 267, with a daily increase of 17 and a weekly decrease of 3 [9]. - Sugar Futures Prices: On July 23, 2025, the closing price of SR01 was 5656, with a daily increase of 0.05% and a weekly increase of 0.35%; the closing price of SR09 was 5834, with a daily increase of 0.19% and a weekly increase of 0.45% [9]. - Sugar Spot Prices: On July 23, 2025, the price of Nanning sugar was 6050, with no daily or weekly change; the price of Kunming sugar was 5920, with no daily change and a weekly increase of 15 [10]. - Sugar Import Prices: On July 23, 2025, the in - quota import price of Brazilian sugar was 4482, with a daily decrease of 101 and a weekly increase of 68; the out - of - quota import price was 5693, with a daily decrease of 133 and a weekly increase of 88 [11].