聚酯数据日报-20250723

Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - PTA: Commodity sentiment has improved, domestic PTA production capacity supply has contracted, port inventories have declined, and a large number of warehouse receipts are being cancelled. The spread between PX and naphtha has expanded to around $250, but the profitability of alkyl transfer and TDP is not optimistic. The spread between PX and MX remains at around $90. Bottle chips and staple fibers are about to enter the maintenance cycle in July. Market port inventories are being depleted, and polyester replenishment has improved as the basis weakens. The basis of PTA has rebounded from 0 to 30. The maintenance of major PTA factories has significantly boosted the market [2]. - Ethylene glycol: Coal prices have rebounded, leading to an increase in ethylene glycol prices. The macro - sentiment has clearly improved, and the chemical industry has followed the upward trend of the commodity market. Overseas ethylene glycol plants, especially those in Saudi Arabia, have had continuous maintenance delays, which may have a significant impact on the market outlook and boost ethylene glycol prices. The future arrival volume of ethylene glycol will decrease. Polyester sales have weakened, and the polyester industry has entered the maintenance cycle. The rapid increase in polyester prices has squeezed the profits of downstream weaving, and the terminal load has significantly declined, which has a certain negative impact on the market [2]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Data - Crude Oil: INE crude oil price dropped from 512.3 yuan/barrel on July 21, 2025, to 504.3 yuan/barrel on July 22, 2025, a decrease of 8 yuan/barrel. The PTA - SC spread increased from 1057.1 to 1129.2, an increase of 72.14. The PTA/SC ratio increased from 1.2839 to 1.3081, an increase of 0.0242 [2]. - PX: CFR China PX price increased from 842 to 843, and the PX - naphtha spread increased from 266 to 270, an increase of 5 [2]. - PTA: The PTA main contract futures price increased from 4780 yuan/ton to 4794 yuan/ton, an increase of 14 yuan/ton. The PTA spot price decreased from 4785 yuan/ton to 4775 yuan/ton, a decrease of 10 yuan/ton. The spot processing fee decreased from 233.6 yuan/ton to 212.1 yuan/ton, a decrease of 21.5 yuan/ton. The on - disk processing fee increased from 233.6 yuan/ton to 246.1 yuan/ton, an increase of 12.5 yuan/ton. The main contract basis decreased from 6 to 2, a decrease of 4. The number of PTA warehouse receipts decreased from 30752 to 30746, a decrease of 6 [2]. - MEG: The MEG main contract futures price increased from 4410 yuan/ton to 4447 yuan/ton, an increase of 37 yuan/ton. The MEG - naphtha spread increased from (92.03) to (86.22), an increase of 5.8. The MEG domestic price increased from 4470 to 4490, an increase of 20. The main contract basis decreased from 62 to 58, a decrease of 4 [2]. - Industrial Chain Operating Rates: PX operating rate remained at 77.74%, PTA operating rate remained at 80.59%, MEG operating rate remained at 57.35%, and polyester load increased from 86.80% to 87.01%, an increase of 0.21% [2]. - Polyester Products: - Polyester Filament: POY150D/48F price increased by 5 yuan/ton, POY cash flow increased by 7. FDY150D/96F price decreased by 10 yuan/ton, FDY cash flow decreased by 8. DTY150D/48F price remained unchanged, DTY cash flow increased by 2. The sales rate of polyester filament increased from 50% to 105%, an increase of 55% [2]. - Polyester Staple Fiber: 1.4D direct - spun polyester staple fiber price decreased by 10 yuan/ton, the cash flow of polyester staple fiber decreased by 8. The sales rate of polyester staple fiber increased from 40% to 48%, an increase of 8% [2]. - Polyester Chips: The price of semi - bright chips increased by 10 yuan/ton, the cash flow of chips increased by 12. The sales rate of chips increased from 71% to 82%, an increase of 11% [2]. Device Maintenance - A 1.5 - million - ton PTA device in East China has restarted after being shut down for maintenance around May 6. A 3 - million - ton PTA device in East China has recently shut down for maintenance, with an expected maintenance period of around 10 days [2].