日度策略参考-20250723

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Bullish: Silver, Copper, Industrial Silicon, Polysilicon, Carbonate Lithium, Manganese Silicon, Ferrosilicon, Glass, PVC, Caustic Soda, Short Fiber, Styrene [1][2] - Bearish: None - Sideways: Treasury Bonds, Aluminum, Stainless Steel, Tin, Rebar, Hot Rolled Coil, Iron Ore, Paper Pulp, Logs, Crude Oil, Fuel Oil, Asphalt, Natural Rubber, PTA, Ethylene Glycol, PE, PP, LPG, Shipping [1][2] Core Views - The recent stock index has shown obvious dullness to negative news, with strong market trading volume and sentiment. In the short term, the stock index is expected to run strongly. - The "asset shortage" situation and the "national team" support have increased the market's willingness to allocate equity assets. The "anti - involution" and real - estate policy expectations have boosted market sentiment. - Asset shortage and weak economy are beneficial to bond futures, but the central bank's short - term reminder of interest - rate risks suppresses the upward space. - Market uncertainties still exist, and the gold price is expected to fluctuate strongly in the short term. - The domestic "anti - involution" theme has fermented, and the macro - sentiment has improved, which has a positive impact on various commodities. Summary by Industry Macro - finance - Treasury Bonds: Asset shortage and weak economy are favorable, but short - term central - bank warnings limit the upside [1]. - Gold: Market uncertainties lead to short - term strong - side fluctuations [1]. Non - ferrous Metals - Silver: Shows short - term resilience, but caution is needed in the medium term [1]. - Copper: Domestic "anti - involution" theme drives a strong trend [1]. - Aluminum: The "anti - involution" theme and high prices create a volatile situation [1]. - Alumina: The "anti - involution" theme and high electrolytic - aluminum profits drive price increases [1]. - Zinc: The "anti - involution" and other factors lead to a continuous upward trend [1]. - Nickel: Short - term macro - factors dominate, with a strong - side fluctuation, but long - term oversupply pressure exists [1]. - Stainless Steel: Macro - sentiment boosts prices, and attention should be paid to raw - material changes and steel - mill production [1]. - Tin: Macro - sentiment and inventory reduction support price increases [1]. - Industrial Silicon: Positive factors such as sporadic resumption of production and market sentiment [1]. - Polysilicon: Expectations of photovoltaic supply - side reform and high market sentiment [1]. - Carbonate Lithium: Resource disturbances, short - term large replenishment, and high market sentiment [1]. Ferrous Metals - Rebar and Hot Rolled Coil: Strong furnace materials provide valuation support [1]. - Iron Ore: Positive commodity sentiment, but the fundamentals are marginally weakening [1]. - Manganese Silicon and Ferrosilicon: Short - term market sentiment drives prices up [1]. Building Materials - Glass: Sentiment dominates, and supply - disturbance expectations support prices [1]. - Soda Ash: Short - term supply - disturbance trading, weak fundamentals, but improved sentiment [1]. Agricultural Products - Palm Oil: International demand growth expectations, but there are risks from increased production and weak exports [1]. - Soybean Meal: In the inventory - accumulation cycle, limited upside for M09 and a wait - for - callback - to - buy strategy for M01 [1]. - Corn: Old - crop supply - demand tightness supports CO9, but new - crop C01 is recommended to be shorted at high prices [1]. - Cotton: Near - month squeeze logic dominates, with limited upside for the 01 contract [1]. - Sugar: Strong operation, but limited upside, with attention to the 5600 - 6000 range [1]. - Paper Pulp: Rebound due to positive commodity sentiment, but not recommended to chase the rise [1]. - Logs: The trading logic may shift to the 09 contract, and not recommended to chase after a large increase [1]. - Pigs: Stable futures due to continuous inventory repair and limited short - term spot decline [1]. Energy and Chemicals - Crude Oil and Fuel Oil: Return to supply - demand logic after geopolitical cooling, with OPEC+ over - expected production increase and short - term consumption support [1]. - Asphalt: Cost - end drag and demand - supply balance lead to fluctuations [1]. - Natural Rubber: Rain disturbances in production areas, slow inventory reduction, and positive sentiment [1]. - PTA: Supply contraction, high polyester downstream load, and limited port de - stocking [1]. - Ethylene Glycol: Coal - price increase, supply contraction, and positive market expectations [1]. - Short Fiber: Low warehouse - receipt registration and increased factory maintenance [1]. - Styrene: Falling pure - benzene price, rising device load, and weakening basis [1]. - Urea: Supply - contraction expectations and domestic demand off - season [1]. - PE: Return to fundamentals after macro - sentiment fades, with more maintenance and weak demand [1]. - PP: "Anti - involution" theme and market sentiment drive prices up [1]. - PVC: Rising prices despite increased supply pressure in the off - season [2]. - Caustic Soda: End of maintenance, low - price spot, and positive sentiment [2]. - LPG: Weak operation due to insufficient crude - oil support, high inventory, and seasonal factors [2]. - Shipping: A pattern of stable reality and weak expectations, with an expected peak in mid - July and a subsequent decline [2].