国投期货农产品日报-20250723

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Douyi: ☆☆☆ [1] - Doupo: ☆☆☆ [1] - Douyou: ☆☆☆ [1] - Palm Oil: ☆☆☆ [1] - Caipo: ☆☆☆ [1] - Caiyou: ☆☆☆ [1] - Corn: ☆☆☆ [1] - Live Pigs: ☆☆☆ [1] - Eggs: ☆☆☆ [1] Core Views - In the agricultural product market, different varieties have different market trends and influencing factors. Short - term attention should be paid to weather and policy guidance. For some products, the market is in a state of shock or waiting for the situation to become clear, while for others, specific investment ideas are proposed [2][3][5] Summary by Related Catalogs Soybean (Douyi) - Domestic soybeans showed a trend of rising first and then falling today, but the price is still in a rebound state. A two - way auction will be held this Friday with a reserve price of 4,200 yuan/ton and a planned auction volume of 39,000 tons. Spot prices are relatively stable. In the next week, there will be more showers in Northeast China and northern North China, with cumulative precipitation 40% - 80% higher than the same period of the year, which is beneficial for soil moisture increase but may cause short - term waterlogging risks. For imported soybeans, the weather risk in the US soybean producing areas in the next 6 - 10 days is relatively low [2] Soybean & Doupo - The US Treasury Secretary said that China and the US will meet in Stockholm, Sweden, on Monday and Tuesday to discuss key issues such as the extension of the tariff "truce". As of the week ending July 20, the good - to - excellent rate of US soybeans was 68%, slightly lower than the previous week. In the next two weeks, there will be slightly less rainfall in the US soybean producing areas, and high - temperature weather is expected in the central and southeastern regions, bringing some uncertainties to the new - season US soybeans. Before the tariff and weather issues are clear, the Doupo market should be treated as a shock market [2] Douyou & Palm Oil - Today, the domestic palm oil main contract strengthened again, with a slight increase in positions and a price increase. The Douyou main contract mainly reduced positions, and the price fluctuated. Indonesia's GAPKI data showed a decline in the ending inventory in May due to increased export demand and decreased production. Although Malaysia's MPOA data showed a production increase, palm oil still performed strongly. Considering the long - term development trends of US and Indonesian biodiesel and the palm oil's entry into the production - reduction cycle in the fourth quarter, a strategy of buying on dips for Douyou and palm oil is maintained [3] Caipo & Caiyou - The Caixin market continued the pattern of strong Caipo and weak Caiyou, with a slight decline in positions. The weather in the Canadian rapeseed producing areas has improved, putting pressure on the rapeseed futures price. The supply side depends on the weather in July and August, with a relatively low probability of extreme risks. The rapeseed inventory of domestic coastal oil mills is still at a low level, and rapeseed imports are still cautious. The demand for Caipo has slightly improved, while Caiyou is in the off - season, and its inventory is still high, which may intensify the downward trend of the oil - meal ratio. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term [5] Corn - Recently, the auction of imported corn by Sinograin had a low transaction rate. As of the week ending July 20, the good - to - excellent rate of US corn was 74%, in line with market expectations, and the corn continued to grow well. The domestic corn market currently has no major contradictions, and the Dalian corn futures may continue to fluctuate weakly [6] Live Pigs - Affected by the news of a symposium held by the Ministry of Agriculture for 18 leading pig enterprises, the live pig futures market rose sharply today, with an increase of 20,000 lots in positions, and multiple far - month contracts hit the daily limit. The driving force for the rise comes from policy expectations. The spot market is weak. In the medium - to - long - term, the potential supply of the live pig market is sufficient. Attention should be paid to policy guidance [7] Eggs - The peak - season contracts of egg futures rose slightly, the off - season contracts were relatively weak, and the far - month contracts for next year were strong. Spot prices generally increased today. The egg spot price has entered the seasonal rebound stage, but attention should be paid to the pressure of cold - storage eggs leaving the warehouse. The price of small eggs is weak, and the pressure of newly - hatched chickens is increasing. The peak - season contracts still have support below, the off - season contracts are expected to be relatively weak, and the far - month contracts are expected to rise after capacity reduction. In the long - term, the egg price cycle has not bottomed out [8]