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黑色金属数据日报-20250723
Guo Mao Qi Huo·2025-07-23 11:42
  1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided on the industry investment rating in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - For steel, the cost story of coal adds fuel to the market. After the gap of the black - series on Tomb - Sweeping Festival is filled, the volatility may increase. The market is mainly driven by futures market funds and sentiment. The base - spread still has opportunities, and the spot - futures positive arbitrage can be rolled. The iron - water output increase strengthens the expectation of improved supply - demand of furnace materials, resulting in a pattern of stronger furnace materials and weaker finished products, compressing the disk profit [2]. - For coking coal and coke, the second round of coke price increase has been implemented, and the market intends to expand the range of the third - round increase. The coking coal auction is still hot. The futures market is affected by the news of the National Energy Administration's coal - mine production verification. The subsequent trend has high uncertainty, and it is recommended to wait and see for now [2]. - For ferrosilicon and silicomanganese, the market is trading the supply reduction under the anti - involution logic. The verification of coal over - production by the National Energy Administration may support the cost of ferrosilicon and silicomanganese, and they will continue to be strong, but the upward space needs to be further observed [2]. - For iron ore, although the market sentiment is boosted by the coal - mine production verification news, the iron ore faces increasing upward pressure. It is not recommended to chase the high. It is not advisable to short on the left - hand side. The steel - mill profit remains high, and the daily average iron - water output in July is expected to remain at a high level. Shorting can be considered when the demand fails to keep up during the peak - season demand verification [2]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Futures Market - On July 22, the closing prices of far - month contracts RB2601, HC2601, I2601, J2601, and JM2601 were 3367.00 yuan/ton, 3492.00 yuan/ton, 793.50 yuan/ton, 1752.00 yuan/ton, and 1137.00 yuan/ton respectively, with corresponding increases of 107.00 yuan, 96.00 yuan, 22.00 yuan, 129.00 yuan, and 112.50 yuan. The closing prices of the main contracts RB2510, HC2510, I2509, J2509, and JM2509 were 3307.00 yuan/ton, 3477.00 yuan/ton, 823.00 yuan/ton, 1697.50 yuan/ton, and 1048.50 yuan/ton respectively, with increases of 100.00 yuan, 96.00 yuan, 20.00 yuan, 125.50 yuan, and 77.50 yuan, and the corresponding increases were 3.12%, 2.84%, 2.49%, 7.98%, and 7.98% [1]. - The cross - month spreads such as RB2510 - 2601, HC2510 - 2601, I2509 - 2601, J2509 - 2601, and JM2509 - 2601 were - 60.00 yuan/ton, - 15.00 yuan/ton, 29.50 yuan/ton, - 88.50 yuan/ton, and - 88.50 yuan/ton respectively on July 22 [1]. Spot Market - On July 22, the spot prices of Shanghai thread steel, Tianjin thread steel, Guangzhou thread steel, and Tangshan billet were 3480.00 yuan/ton, 3510.00 yuan/ton, 3510.00 yuan/ton, and 250.00 yuan/ton respectively, with increases of 50.00 yuan, 50.00 yuan, 60.00 yuan, and 50.00 yuan. The spot prices of Shanghai hot - rolled coil, Hangzhou hot - rolled coil, and Guangzhou hot - rolled coil were 3480.00 yuan/ton, 3510.00 yuan/ton, and 3510.00 yuan/ton respectively, with increases of 50.00 yuan, 50.00 yuan, and 60.00 yuan [1]. - The base - spreads of HC main contract, RB main contract, I main contract, J main contract, and JM main contract were 3.00 yuan/ton, 73.00 yuan/ton, 7.00 yuan/ton, - 286.16 yuan/ton, and - 78.50 yuan/ton respectively on July 22 [1]. Industry Situation - In the steel industry, the iron - water output growth rate has expanded. Among the weekly five - material apparent demands, the building materials are weaker, while the plates can still achieve inventory reduction and month - on - month increase in apparent demand. The disk shows that the hot - rolled coil is slightly stronger than the thread steel, especially in the 10 - contract, which is related to the rapid increase in the thread - steel futures warehouse receipts [2]. - In the coking coal and coke industry, the second - round coke price increase has been implemented, and the market intends to expand the third - round increase. The coking coal auction is hot, and the coal price has risen rapidly. The coke basis is negative, and the port trade quasi - first - grade coke is quoted at 1380 yuan/ton (+40), and the Chen coking coal price index is 1070.8 (+21.1) [2]. - In the ferrosilicon and silicomanganese industry, the market is trading the supply reduction under the anti - involution logic. The verification of coal over - production by the National Energy Administration may support the cost of ferrosilicon and silicomanganese, and they will continue to be strong, but the upward space needs to be further observed [2]. - In the iron - ore industry, although the market sentiment is boosted by the coal - mine production verification news, the iron ore faces increasing upward pressure. It is not recommended to chase the high. The steel - mill profit remains high, and the daily average iron - water output in July is expected to remain at a high level [2].