南华期货碳酸锂企业风险管理日报-20250723

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The current lithium ore, lithium salt, and battery cell markets are under significant inventory pressure, and the de - stocking process is slow. The medium - to - long - term supply - demand imbalance has not been substantially alleviated [3]. - There are two short - term logics in the market: a negative feedback cycle of "lithium salt price drop - ore price decline - further lithium salt price drop" and a stepped - up cycle of "futures price increase - capacity release - increased ore consumption - ore price increase" [3]. - The cost curve is flattening due to technological upgrades, driving the central price of lithium carbonate down [3]. - The futures market in the second half of the year is expected to be divided into two stages: the futures price will rise in the early third quarter due to improved macro - sentiment, supply disruptions, and better - than - expected off - season performance; it will decline in the fourth quarter as technological upgrades are completed and production is concentrated [3]. - There are both positive and negative factors affecting the market. Positive factors include improved macro - sentiment, supply disruptions, and the trading of the contradiction between high open interest and low warrant numbers. Negative factors include high future lithium ore production expectations, continuous inventory accumulation, and delayed capacity clearance [3][5]. Summary by Directory 1. Futures Data - Price and Volume of the Main Contract: The closing price of the lithium carbonate futures main contract was 69,380 yuan/ton, with a daily decrease of 3,500 yuan (- 4.80%) and a weekly increase of 2,960 yuan (4.46%). The trading volume was 1,334,159 lots, with a daily increase of 215,933 lots (19.31%) and a weekly increase of 856,045 lots (179.05%). The open interest was 362,054 lots, with a daily decrease of 49,584 lots (- 12.05%) and a weekly increase of 21,436 lots (6.29%) [8]. - Price Spread Changes: The LC08 - 11 spread was 700 yuan, with a daily decrease of 300 yuan (- 30.00%) and a weekly decrease of 60 yuan (- 7.89%); the LC09 - 11 spread was 760 yuan, with a daily decrease of 320 yuan (- 30%) and a weekly increase of 180 yuan (31%); the LC11 - 12 spread was - 160 yuan, with a daily decrease of 180 yuan (- 900%) and a weekly increase of 80 yuan (- 33%) [10]. 2. Spot Data - Lithium Ore Prices: The prices of various types of lithium ore, such as lithium mica, lithium spodumene, and phospho - lithium - aluminum stone, showed different degrees of daily and weekly increases. For example, the average price of lithium mica (Li2O: 2 - 2.5%) was 1,605 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 15 yuan (0.94%) and a weekly increase of 155 yuan (10.69%) [15]. - Carbon/Hydrogen Lithium Prices: The prices of industrial - grade and battery - grade lithium carbonate and lithium hydroxide all increased. For example, the average price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate was 68,800 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 1,350 yuan (2.00%) and a weekly increase of 5,450 yuan (8.60%) [18]. - Downstream Product Prices: The prices of downstream products such as lithium iron phosphate, ternary materials, and electrolytes also showed different degrees of increase. For example, the average price of power - type lithium iron phosphate was 32,665 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 325 yuan (1.00%) [23]. 3. Basis and Warrant Data - Basis Quotations: The basis quotations of different lithium carbonate brands showed different degrees of decline. For example, the basis of Shengxin Lithium Energy (LI2CO3≥99.8%, LC2507) was 100 yuan, with a daily decrease of 300 yuan [27]. - Warrant Quantity: The total number of lithium carbonate warrants was 10,754, an increase of 665 from the previous day. The warrant quantities of different warehouses changed differently, with some increasing and some decreasing [30]. 4. Cost and Profit - Production and Delivery Profits: The report shows the trends of production profits from purchased ore, theoretical delivery profits, and import profits of lithium carbonate, but specific profit values are not summarized here [32].