天然与合成橡胶日评：天然橡胶震荡偏强，合成橡胶震荡偏强-20250723

Report Title - Natural and Synthetic Rubber Daily Review 20250723: Natural Rubber Fluctuates Strongly, Synthetic Rubber Fluctuates Strongly [2] Report Author - Wang Wenhu (F03087656, Z0019472), Contact Number: 010 - 82293558 [3] Report Core View - Natural rubber may see prices fluctuate strongly due to slight inventory reduction and rising tire demand, while synthetic rubber may also fluctuate strongly supported by improved macro - atmosphere and rising raw material costs. Attention should be paid to the support and pressure levels of natural rubber at 13800 - 14000 and 15400 - 15600 respectively, and those of synthetic rubber at 11100 - 11400 and 12400 - 12600 respectively [1] Market Data Summary Natural Rubber Futures Active Contract - On July 22, 2025, the closing price was 15060, up 165 from the previous day; the trading volume was 567016 lots, an increase of 128226 lots; the open interest was 216311 lots, a decrease of 1817 lots; the registered warrant volume remained unchanged at 186620; the natural rubber basis was - 85, down 65 from the previous day [1] Synthetic Rubber Futures Active Contract - On July 22, 2025, the closing price was 12100, up 105 from the previous day; the trading volume was 121387 lots, an increase of 34371 lots; the open interest was 49351 lots, an increase of 34358 lots; the registered warrant volume was 9850, up 150 from the previous day; the synthetic rubber basis was - 341.67, down 88.34 from the previous day [1] Supply - side Situation - In the future, weather in major natural rubber producing areas such as Thailand, Vietnam, and Indonesia will be stable with less precipitation, while there will be rainfall in domestic producing areas including Guangdong, Guangxi, Hainan, and Yunnan. As of July 17, 2025, the weekly capacity utilization rate of butadiene rubber was 63.22%, up 0.47% from the previous week, and that of styrene - butadiene rubber was 78.79%, up 1.6% from the previous week [1] Inventory Situation - As of July 18, 2025, the weekly warehouse receipt inventory of natural rubber on the SHFE was 212.92 thousand tons, a decrease of 0.67 thousand tons from the previous week; the weekly social inventory of natural rubber in Qingdao was 11.37 million tons, a decrease of 0.12 million tons; the bonded area inventory was 0.197 million tons, a decrease of 0.07 million tons. As of July 17, 2025, the weekly social inventory of butadiene rubber was 12640 tons, a decrease of 123 tons from the previous week [1] Cost - side Situation - Global natural rubber supply has entered an increasing period, with full tapping in domestic and foreign major producing areas. As of July 22, 2025, the glue purchase price in the Hat Yai market of Songkhla Province, Thailand was 54.8 Thai baht/kg, up 0.3 Thai baht/kg from the previous day, and the daily purchase price of natural rubber glue in the Hainan market was 15250 yuan/ton, up 100 yuan/ton from the previous day. For synthetic rubber, short - term contradictions in crude oil are not prominent, and oil price volatility has returned to a range - bound pattern. The upstream raw material butadiene price has increased [1] Demand - side Situation - As of July 17, 2025, the weekly operating load rate of all - steel tires in Shandong was 65.08%, up 0.54% from the previous week, and the weekly operating load rate of semi - steel tires in China was 75.62%, up 3.07% from the previous week. According to the Passenger Car Association, from June 1 - 30, the retail sales of the national automobile market were 2.904 million vehicles, an increase of 217700 vehicles from the previous month; the sales of passenger cars were 2.536 million vehicles, an increase of 184300 vehicles; the sales of trucks in China were 316000 vehicles, an increase of 24500 vehicles from the previous month [1]