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铂钯系列(二):全球铂金供需格局
Guo Tou Qi Huo·2025-07-23 11:52

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints - The global platinum supply is highly concentrated with low elasticity, and the output of major producers is insufficient. In 2024, the global platinum output declined, and it is expected to continue to decline in 2025. The demand for platinum in different regions and fields varies, and the global platinum market has a supply - demand gap [1][4][11] Group 3: Summary by Directory 1.1 Global Platinum Supply Pattern - Supply Concentration: South Africa, Zimbabwe, and Russia are the main suppliers of global platinum. In 2024, South Africa's platinum output decreased by 4% year - on - year to 120 tons, accounting for 71% of the global total. Zimbabwe and Russia each accounted for 11%, and other countries accounted for 8% [1] - Supply Constraints: Long - term trends, sub - optimal new project implementation, mine depletion, and shutdowns have continuously restricted supply, resulting in insufficient output elasticity of major global platinum producers. In 2024, factors such as power outages in Brazil and Zimbabwe, restructuring in North America, and early production decline in Canada dragged down platinum output [1] - Production and Recycling in 2024: The global platinum output in 2024 was 195.9 tons. The global mined platinum volume decreased by 567 kg year - on - year to 155.9 tons, and the global recycled platinum accounted for 20.4%, with the recycling volume increasing by 3% year - on - year to 39.97 tons [4] - Production Forecast for 2025: It is expected that the global mined platinum volume will decline by 4% year - on - year to 150.1 tons in 2025 due to the decline in South African output and the restructuring of Stillwater in North America. The catalyst recycling volume is expected to improve significantly, but the US tariff on cars may drag down the US platinum recycling volume [4] 1.2 Platinum Global Balance - Consumption Regions and Fields: The main consumption regions of global platinum are China, Europe, North America, and Japan. China's demand accounts for 26% of the global total, with industrial demand being the largest. Western Europe and North America account for 20% and 18% respectively, with automotive catalyst demand being the largest. Japan accounts for 9%, mainly in automotive catalysts and jewelry. India's industrial demand is small, but its automotive catalyst and jewelry demand are increasing, and it may exceed Japan in the future [6] - Demand in 2024: In 2024, the global demand for platinum group metals decreased by 1.6% year - on - year to 198 tons, with a supply gap of 1.98 tons. Automotive industry demand decreased by 3% to 63.4 tons, jewelry demand decreased slightly by 0.3 tons to 38.3 tons, industrial demand remained flat at 63.4 tons, and hydrogen energy demand increased slightly by 0.3 tons to 2 tons, accounting for 1% [11] - Global Platinum Balance Table: The table shows the changes in mine production, recycling, total demand, and supply - demand balance of global platinum from 2017 to 2025f. The supply gap is expected to widen in 2025 [13]