Report Industry Investment Ratings - Cotton: ☆☆☆, indicating a short - term multi/empty trend in a relatively balanced state with poor operability on the current market, suggesting waiting and seeing [1] - Pulp: ★☆☆, representing a bullish bias with a driving force for an upward trend, but poor operability on the market [1] - Sugar: ☆☆☆, suggesting a short - term multi/empty trend in a relatively balanced state and poor operability on the current market, advising waiting and seeing [1] - Apple: ☆☆☆, meaning a short - term multi/empty trend in a relatively balanced state and poor operability on the current market, recommending waiting and seeing [1] - Timber: ☆☆☆, indicating a short - term multi/empty trend in a relatively balanced state and poor operability on the current market, suggesting waiting and seeing [1] - 20 - rubber: ★☆☆, representing a bullish bias with a driving force for an upward trend, but poor operability on the market [1] - Natural rubber: ★☆☆, indicating a bullish bias with a driving force for an upward trend, but poor operability on the market [1] - Butadiene rubber: ★☆☆, representing a bullish bias with a driving force for an upward trend, but poor operability on the market [1] Core Views - The futures prices of various soft commodities show different trends. The prices of cotton, sugar, apple, and timber are in a state of shock or correction, while pulp is rising, and 20 - rubber, natural rubber, and synthetic rubber are falling. The market sentiment and fundamentals of each commodity vary, and the operation suggestions are mainly waiting and seeing, with some commodities having the option of intraday operation or buying at low prices [2][3][4] Summary by Commodity Cotton & Cotton Yarn - Zhengzhou cotton declined slightly today with sharp fluctuations. The 9 - 1 spread also decreased. The inventory depletion rate slowed down in the first half of July. As of July 15, the commercial cotton inventory was 2.5424 million tons, a decrease of 287,400 tons compared to June. In June 2025, the cotton import was 30,000 tons, a new low in nearly 20 years. From January to June 2025, the cumulative import was 460,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 74.3%. Downstream cotton procurement remains cautious, and there is a strong expectation of increased production in the new year. The cotton yarn market has average trading and strong prices. Macroscopically, attention should be paid to the details of Sino - US trade. Operationally, it is recommended to wait and see or conduct intraday operations [2] Sugar - Overnight, US sugar fluctuated. In Brazil, the estimated sugarcane yield per hectare in the central - southern region in the 25/26 season is 72 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 6.5%. However, most international consulting companies believe that the sugar production in the central - southern region of Brazil will remain above 40 million tons. In China, Zhengzhou sugar fluctuated. In June 2025, the sugar import was 420,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 392,300 tons; the import of syrup and premixed powder was 115,500 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 103,500 tons. Although there is an increase in production in Guangxi this year, due to the fast sales rhythm, the inventory has decreased year - on - year, and the spot pressure is relatively light. However, the US sugar trend is still downward, and the upward space for Zhengzhou sugar is relatively limited. It is expected that the sugar price will remain volatile in the short term, and it is recommended to wait and see [3] Apple - The futures price fluctuated. The mainstream spot price remained stable. New - season early - maturing apples began to be supplied to the market. The price of 65 apples in Yuncheng area increased by 0.2 - 0.3 yuan per catty year - on - year, and traders are bullish. As of July 18, the national cold - storage apple inventory was 734,100 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 42.55%. Last week, the national cold - storage apple destocking volume was 90,300 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 23.8%. The market's trading focus has shifted to the new - season yield estimate. The western producing areas were affected by cold snaps and strong winds during the flowering period this year, mainly increasing the risk of fruit rust. The flower quantity in the producing areas is sufficient this year, but there are still differences in the yield estimate. It is recommended to wait and see [4] 20 - rubber, Natural Rubber & Synthetic Rubber - Today, RU, NR, and BR all declined in a fluctuating manner. The sentiment in the futures market was divided. The domestic natural rubber spot price was stable with a slight decline, and the synthetic rubber spot price continued to rise. The Asian price of the external butadiene port increased while the European price was stable. The supply of global natural rubber is gradually entering the high - yield period, and there are strong winds and rains in the Southeast Asian producing areas. Last week, the operating rate of domestic butadiene rubber plants rebounded. The demand side shows that the operating rate of domestic all - steel tires continued to rise slightly, and the operating rate of semi - steel tires continued to rise significantly. The inventory of tire finished products increased. This week, the total natural rubber inventory in Qingdao decreased to 634,600 tons, and the social inventory of Chinese butadiene rubber decreased to 12,600 tons. The strategy is to rebound [6] Pulp - Today, pulp continued to rise. The spot price of Shandong Yinxing was 5,950 yuan per ton, an increase of 30 yuan; the price of Russian needles in the Yangtze River Delta was 5,480 yuan per ton; the price of broad - leaf pulp Jinyu was 4,150 yuan per ton, an increase of 50 yuan. As of July 17, 2025, the inventory of mainstream Chinese pulp ports was 2.181 million tons, a decrease of 2,000 tons from the previous period. In June, the pulp import was still high year - on - year. The pulp supply is relatively loose, the demand is still weak, and downstream buyers tend to bargain. The pulp valuation is low. It is recommended to wait and see or buy lightly at low prices [7] Timber - The futures price corrected. The mainstream spot price remained stable. As of July 18, the average daily outbound volume of logs at 13 national ports was 62,400 cubic meters, a week - on - week increase of 3,600 cubic meters, an increase of 6.12%. As of July 18, the total national port log inventory was 3.29 million cubic meters, a month - on - month increase of 70,000 cubic meters. The total national log inventory is low, and the inventory pressure is relatively small. Due to poor profits, the log shipment volume from New Zealand will remain low, and there is certain positive news on the supply side. However, domestic demand is in the off - season, and the price lacks the driving force to continue to rebound. It is recommended to wait and see [8]
国投期货软商品日报-20250723
Guo Tou Qi Huo·2025-07-23 11:52