棉花：美棉小幅反弹，郑棉继续横盘

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - There is no information about the industry investment rating in the provided reports. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The Zhengzhou Cotton (ZCE) main contract 2509 closed at 14,180 yuan/ton, down 0.32% or 45 yuan/ton from the previous trading day, showing a sideways movement with a slight decline at the end. The ICE cotton futures rebounded slightly, closing at 68.26 cents/pound, up 0.25% overnight. The overall market sentiment is weak due to good climate in the US cotton - growing areas and a generally weak agricultural products market. The global cotton supply - demand remains in a loose situation, and the upward driving force for cotton prices is insufficient in the short - term. Long - term support for price increases is limited due to high inventory levels. Attention should be paid to the impact of external market trends, tariff policies, and domestic policies, as well as the upcoming high - temperature weather in Xinjiang, China's main cotton - growing area [2][16]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Overview - The Zhengzhou Cotton main contract 2509 closed at 14,180 yuan/ton, down 0.32% or 45 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. It showed a sideways movement throughout the day with a slight decline before the close. The ICE cotton futures rebounded slightly, closing at 68.26 cents/pound, up 0.25% overnight. The US cotton - growing areas have good climate, and the agricultural products market is generally weak, leading to a low - sentiment market. Future attention should be paid to the marginal impact of external market trends, tariff policies, and domestic policies [2]. 3.2 Macro and Industry News - On July 23, 2025, the total cotton warehouse receipts on the Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange were 9,695 (- 34) sheets, including 9,382 (- 54) registered warehouse receipts and 313 (+20) valid forecasts [3]. - According to the June 2025 cotton textile enterprise survey report by the China Cotton Association, the Zhengzhou cotton futures price rebounded in June, the cotton spot basis was firm, but the downstream market did not follow the price increase. The yarn - cotton price difference narrowed again, and textile enterprises were cautious in purchasing. The raw material inventory decreased slightly. As of the end of June, the in - stock industrial cotton inventory of textile enterprises was 90.3 million tons, a decrease of 3.8 million tons from the previous month. Among them, 21.3% of enterprises increased their cotton inventory, 39.6% decreased it, and 39.1% kept it basically unchanged [3][4]. - The finished product inventory of textile enterprises increased in June, while the raw material inventory decreased slightly. As of the end of June, the yarn inventory of textile enterprises was 27.2 days, an increase of 4.9 days from the previous month, and the grey fabric inventory was 36.6 days, an increase of 3.7 days from the previous month [4]. - The demand for textiles continued to weaken in June. Some yarn mills started to implement production - limiting measures, and the output decreased month - on - month. However, due to a higher national production capacity base than last year, the output still increased year - on - year. The yarn price continued to fall, and the operating difficulties of enterprises increased. The subsequent operating rate may continue to decline. The yarn sales rate was 69%, a decrease of 2 percentage points from the previous month [4]. - From July 24 to 30, most of the plain areas in Xinjiang will experience high - temperature weather of 35 - 37°C, with the highest temperature in some areas reaching over 40°C and even over 45°C in parts of Turpan and Hami. Most of the cotton in Xinjiang is in the flowering and boll - setting stage, and there is a high or very high risk of high - temperature heat damage in cotton - growing areas [5]. 3.3 Data Charts - The reports provide data charts on CZCE and ICE cotton futures prices, cotton spot prices and basis, 9 - 1 spread, textile profit, cotton import profit, yarn import profit, warehouse receipt quantity, and non - commercial positions, but no detailed analysis of these charts is provided in the text [6][9][11][14]. 3.4 Analysis and Strategy - On July 22, US President Trump announced a trade agreement with Japan through social media, reducing the original 25% reciprocal tariff rate to 15%. Japan will invest $550 billion in the US and open up its agricultural product markets such as rice. The Japanese Prime Minister will listen to a detailed report and may have further communication with Trump. The Trump administration uses tariffs as a tool to ease domestic economic problems. - The global cotton supply - demand remains in a loose situation. The Zhengzhou cotton continued to move sideways, with insufficient upward driving force. Attention should be paid to the high - temperature weather in Xinjiang, the main cotton - growing area. The current situation of loose supply - demand at home and abroad will not change, and the high inventory level limits the upward space for cotton prices in the long - term [16].