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国投期货化工日报-20250723
Guo Tou Qi Huo·2025-07-23 12:04

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Urea: ★★★, indicating a clear upward trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity [1] - Methanol: ★★★, indicating a clear upward trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity [1] - Pure Benzene: ★★★, indicating a clear upward trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity [1] - Styrene: ★★★, indicating a clear upward trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity [1] - Propylene: ★★★, indicating a clear upward trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity [1] - Plastic: ★★★, indicating a clear upward trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity [1] - PVC: ★★★, indicating a clear upward trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity [1] - Caustic Soda: ★★★, indicating a clear upward trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity [1] - PX: ★★★, indicating a clear upward trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity [1] - PTA: ★★★, indicating a clear upward trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity [1] - Ethylene Glycol: ★☆★, indicating a bullish bias but limited operability on the disk [1] - Short Fiber: ★☆★, indicating a bullish bias but limited operability on the disk [1] - Glass: ★★★, indicating a clear upward trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity [1] - Soda Ash: ★★★, indicating a clear upward trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity [1] - Bottle Chip: ★★★, indicating a clear upward trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity [1] Core Views - The market is gradually returning to rationality after being stimulated by macro news, and each chemical product is affected by factors such as supply and demand, seasonality, and policies, showing different trends [2][3][4] - Different chemical products have different investment opportunities and trends, and investors need to pay attention to market changes and policy trends [2][3][4] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Olefins - Polyolefins - Propylene futures fluctuated narrowly and closed slightly lower. The market lacks fundamental support for upward movement, and the spot market supply - demand support is weak [2] - Polyolefin futures main contracts closed lower. Polyethylene demand is weak, and polypropylene price has a small upward shift, but the price increase space is limited due to weak demand [2] Pure Benzene - Styrene - Pure benzene followed the external market sentiment and oscillated lower. There is an expectation of seasonal improvement in supply - demand in the third quarter and pressure in the fourth quarter [3] - Styrene futures main contract faced technical pressure and oscillated lower. The macro - positive support weakened, and the spot trading was poor [3] Polyester - PX and PTA rose and then fell. PTA continued to accumulate inventory, and the demand for upstream PX was dragged down. The processing margin of PTA has room to repair [4] - Ethylene glycol oscillated lower. The downstream demand was weak, and the supply increased. The supply advantage will weaken [4] - Short fiber followed the raw materials to rise and then fall. The demand is expected to pick up in the medium - term. Bottle chip inventory is stable after production reduction, but the profit repair drive is limited [4] Coal Chemical Industry - Methanol futures main contract oscillated and corrected. The port unexpectedly destocked, and the domestic main - producing area enterprises may postpone autumn maintenance [5] - Urea futures opened high and went low. The domestic downstream demand is weak, but the export is advancing, and the short - term is expected to oscillate strongly [5] Chlor - Alkali - PVC fell from a high. The spot trading volume was mediocre, the demand was in the off - season, and the supply increased. The short - term price may follow the overall sentiment [6] - Caustic soda fell from a high. The spot performance was average, the high - price goods sales slowed down, and the impact of macro factors is large in the short - term [6] Soda Ash - Glass - Soda ash fell. The inventory decreased, the spot price rose, and the supply was high. The short - term is more affected by macro - sentiment [7] - Glass fell from a high. The industry continued to destock, the profit slightly recovered, and the short - term is expected to follow the macro - sentiment [7]