2025中报前瞻：关注预告日至财报日的景气超额

Group 1 - The report highlights a focus on cyclical and resource sectors for excess returns from the earnings forecast date to the official financial report date, particularly in the basic chemical sector due to favorable economic conditions [1][2] - Companies with significant earnings surprises and upward revisions in analyst earnings forecasts include those in the pharmaceutical and biological sectors, as well as steel, non-ferrous metals, electronics, and communication industries [1][2][3] - Over 45 companies are expected to report a profit growth rate exceeding 30% year-on-year in the mid-year reports, indicating a strong performance across most industries [3][26] Group 2 - The report indicates that as of July 20, 2025, 1,574 companies in the A-share market disclosed their Q2 earnings forecasts or reports, with a disclosure rate of approximately 29% and a positive earnings forecast rate of about 43.7% [2][8] - The electronic industry is driven by a dual engine of AI-driven hardware upgrades and policy-driven consumption recovery, leading to high growth rates [29][30] - The basic chemical sector is experiencing structural improvements due to supply constraints and demand support, with some products seeing significant price increases [39][44] - The mechanical equipment sector is supported by domestic demand recovery and accelerated overseas expansion, with notable profit growth in general and specialized equipment manufacturing [47][48] Group 3 - The report identifies high-performing sectors, including electronics, basic chemicals, and mechanical equipment, with many companies expected to report strong earnings growth [26][29] - The electronic sector's growth is bolstered by the expansion of AI computing power and favorable consumer policies, leading to a projected annual growth rate exceeding 40% in the AI computing market from 2023 to 2028 [30][31] - In the basic chemical sector, the price of certain products, such as the herbicide acetamiprid, has surged over 81% due to supply constraints, significantly boosting related companies' earnings [39][44]