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232对铜影响分析(一):美国铜行业现状
Yin He Qi Huo·2025-07-23 13:32
  1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Trump announced a 50% tariff increase on copper on July 9, 2025, and stated on social media on July 10 that the 232 tariff would take effect on August 1. The specific details are still unclear, and the main purpose is to reduce external dependence and promote the reshoring of the manufacturing industry [2]. - The core contradiction in the US copper industry is insufficient smelting capacity rather than resource shortage, resulting in a trade pattern of "raw material export - finished product import." In 2025, from January to July, US refined copper imports may exceed 1 million tons, and even if imports stop within the year, normal supply can still be maintained. It is expected that refined copper exports to the US will decrease significantly in the second half of the year, and the supply of refined copper in non - US regions is expected to increase, but the overall inventory accumulation speed may be lower than expected. Next year, regardless of whether the tariff is exempted, US refined copper imports will return to normal levels. If copper product enterprises reshore, the US will increase refined copper imports to replace imported copper products [2]. - The reshoring cycle of copper smelting is relatively long and currently faces a series of problems. In contrast, the construction cycle of copper products is short, and scrap copper supply is sufficient, making reshoring easier. If considering pre - preparation issues such as labor, environmental protection, and documents, referring to the import and export situation of aluminum products, the production cycle may be about 2 years [3]. - If there is no 232 exemption, the comex - lme spread will rebound to over 40%, most affecting Chile and Canada. If the US exempts the 232 tariff for Chile, Canada and other countries, it may cause a short - term plunge in comex copper, and the comex - lme spread will drop to 0 - 10%. If non - major import source countries are exempted, the impact on the market is small, and the spread may remain at 30% - 40%. If major import source countries are exempted from the refined copper tariff and instead restrict the export of scrap copper and copper concentrate, it will drive the comex - lme spread to decline, exacerbate the global shortage of raw material supply, and copper prices may start a new round of upward trend [3][5]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 US Copper Industry Structure - The main contradiction in the US copper industry is not the shortage of copper element supply but the regression of smelting capacity. Comparing 1998 (the year with the highest electrolytic copper production) and 2024, in 1998, US copper concentrate production was 1.86 million tons, copper self - sufficiency rate was as high as 87%, net imported copper concentrate was 180,000 tons, and 350,000 tons of scrap copper were imported as raw material supplements. Electrolytic copper production reached a peak of 2.14 million tons, accounting for 17.63% of the global total, but still could not meet domestic demand of 2.89 million tons, with a net import of 640,000 tons of refined copper. In 2024, US copper concentrate production decreased to 1.1 million tons, of which 780,000 tons were used for domestic smelter production, and the remaining 320,000 tons were exported. The US changed from a net importer of scrap copper to the largest exporter, with a net export volume of 820,000 tons. Refined copper production decreased to 850,000 tons, a 60% reduction compared to 1998. Net imports increased to 724,000 tons, and consumption decreased from 2.89 million tons in 1998 to 1.6 million tons in 2024 [7]. 3.2 US Copper Trade Flows 3.2.1 Copper Concentrate - In 2024, US copper concentrate production was 1.1 million tons, and 320,000 tons were exported, mainly to Mexico, China, and Canada. Exports to Mexico were 229,000 tons, accounting for 71.6%. The US basically does not import copper concentrate and is less affected by the 232 tariff [16]. 3.2.2 Scrap Copper - In 2024, the US exported 959,000 tons of scrap copper, with 397,000 tons (or 40%) exported to China, 104,000 tons to Canada, 95,000 tons to Thailand, 74,000 tons to India, and 72,000 tons to Malaysia. After the mutual addition of 10% reciprocal tariffs between China and the US, the export volume of scrap copper in April and May did not decrease, but the export destination changed. Thailand and India became the top two importers. In 2024, the US imported 138,000 tons of scrap copper, mainly from Mexico and Canada. If Trump imposes a 232 tariff on scrap copper, Mexican scrap copper may be redirected to other countries. There are three possible future directions for US scrap copper: normal export, entering the processing link if the copper processing industry reshore, and entering the smelting link if the copper smelting industry reshore. It is considered that the second possibility is more likely [19][20]. 3.2.3 Electrolytic Copper - In 2024, the US imported 926,000 tons of refined copper, with the top three import source countries being Chile, Canada, and Peru, with import volumes of 650,000 tons (or 70%), 154,000 tons (or 16.6%), and 63,000 tons (or 6.8%) respectively. In 2025, affected by the 232 tariff policy, from January to May, the US imported 680,000 tons of refined copper. Assuming an average import of 200,000 tons in June and July, the total import volume will reach 1.08 million tons, exceeding the annual import volume in previous years. Import volume will decrease significantly or stop within the year, and refined copper from Chile, Canada, and Peru may be shipped to non - US regions. In 2024, the US exported 202,000 tons of refined copper, with 157,000 tons (or 77.7%) exported to Mexico and 24,000 tons (or 11.9%) to Canada [22]. 3.2.4 Copper Products and Others - In 2024, the total import volume of US copper products was 578,000 tons, and the total export volume was 272,000 tons. Import sources were relatively scattered, while exports were concentrated in Canada and Mexico. For copper rods and profiles, 55,000 tons were imported, mainly from Germany, Peru, and Mexico, and 29,000 tons were exported, with Canada and Mexico accounting for 44% and 40% respectively. The most imported copper product was copper wire, with 255,000 tons imported in 2024, of which Canada accounted for about 77.6% of exports to the US. The US also exported 171,000 tons of copper wire, mainly to Mexico and Canada. For copper plates and strips, 84,000 tons were imported, and 36,000 tons were exported, mainly to Mexico and Canada. The US imported 31,000 tons of copper foil, mainly from Asian countries and regions, and basically had no exports. Copper tubes had the highest net import volume, with 103,000 tons imported in 2024 and 25,000 tons exported, mainly to Mexico, Saudi Arabia, and Canada. In 2024, the US imported 50,000 tons of copper tube accessories, mainly from China, Germany, and Vietnam, and exported 11,000 tons, mainly to Mexico and Canada [30][31].