银河期货氯碱日报-20250723

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - PVC: The supply - demand situation has weakened, with continuous inventory accumulation and declining downstream product start - up rates. New production capacity is expected to be put into operation, and domestic demand is affected by the real estate market. However, due to the influence of eliminating backward production capacity and short - term strong macro - policy and sentiment, it is expected to be oscillatingly strong before policy implementation. There is a risk of price decline if policy support is weak or sentiment cools down [8][10]. - Caustic soda: The futures price has strengthened due to the elimination of backward production capacity. Fundamentally, the alumina industry is stable, but the caustic soda inventory has increased, non - aluminum demand is weak, and new production capacity is expected to be put into operation. Before policy implementation, it is expected to be oscillatingly strong, and there is a risk of price decline if policy support is weak or sentiment cools down [9][10]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 First Part: Related Data 3.1.1 PVC - related Data - Futures prices: V2605 decreased by 97 yuan to 5466 yuan, a decline of 1.74%; V2509 decreased by 109 yuan to 5151 yuan, a decline of 2.07%; V2601 decreased by 105 yuan to 5269 yuan, a decline of 1.95% [4]. - Main contract positions: 865,000 lots, unchanged from the previous day, a decline of 0.02% [4]. - Warehouse receipts: 55,000 lots, unchanged [4]. - Basis and spread: V 9 - 1 spread decreased by 4 yuan to - 118 yuan, a change of 3.51%; V1 - 5 spread decreased by 8 yuan to - 197 yuan, a change of 4.23% [4]. - Spot prices: East China SG - 5 decreased by 40 yuan to 4960 yuan, a decline of 0.80%; South China SG - 5 increased by 10 yuan to 5010 yuan, an increase of 0.20% [4]. - Spot spreads: The South China - East China SG5 spread increased by 50 yuan to 50 yuan; the East China - North China SG5 spread decreased by 40 yuan to 240 yuan [4]. - Cost and profit: Wuhai calcium carbide remained at 2250 yuan; Shandong calcium carbide decreased by 50 yuan to 2730 yuan; Shandong's externally - purchased calcium carbide method profit increased by 88 yuan to - 293 yuan [4]. 3.1.2 Caustic Soda - related Data - Futures prices: SH508 decreased by 4 yuan to 2587 yuan, a decline of 0.15%; SH509 decreased by 14 yuan to 2644 yuan, a decline of 0.53%; SH601 decreased by 44 yuan to 2655 yuan, a decline of 1.63% [4]. - Main contract positions: 115,600 lots, a decrease of 14,100 lots from the previous day, a decline of 10.91% [4]. - Warehouse receipts: 0 lots, unchanged [4]. - Basis and spread: SH 8 - 9 spread increased by 10 yuan to - 57 yuan, a change of - 14.93%; SH9 - 1 spread increased by 30 yuan to - 11 yuan, a change of - 73.17% [4]. - Spot prices: Shandong 32% decreased by 10 yuan to 810 yuan, a decline of 1.22%; Xinjiang flake caustic soda increased by 150 yuan to 3100 yuan, an increase of 5.08% [4]. - Spot spreads: The Shandong 50% - 32% spread increased by 31 yuan to 159 yuan, an increase of 24.51%; the Guangdong flake caustic soda - Guangdong 50% spread increased by 3170 yuan to 3750 yuan, an increase of 546.55% [4]. - Cost and profit: Shandong raw salt price remained at 210 yuan; Shandong caustic soda profit decreased by 31 yuan to 643 yuan; 50% caustic soda export profit decreased by 2 yuan to - 61 yuan [4]. 3.2 Second Part: Market Analysis 3.2.1 Market Review - PVC: Changzhou SG - 5 spot price was 4960 - 5080 yuan/ton, a decrease of 40 yuan/ton; Guangzhou SG - 5 spot price was 5010 - 5080 yuan/ton, a change of + 10/ - 30 yuan/ton [5]. - Caustic soda: In Shandong, the mainstream transaction price of 32% ion - exchange membrane caustic soda decreased by 15 yuan/ton on average; the mainstream transaction price of 50% ion - exchange membrane caustic soda remained stable [6]. 3.2.2 Related News On July 24, 2025, the price of liquid chlorine from Shandong Xinf Fa increased by 100 yuan, with an ex - factory price of - 400 yuan [7]. 3.2.3 Logic Analysis - PVC: The supply - demand situation has weakened, with inventory accumulation and low downstream start - up rates. New production capacity is expected to be put into operation, and domestic demand is affected by real estate. The futures price has risen due to the elimination of backward production capacity. Before policy implementation, it is expected to be oscillatingly strong, and there is a risk of price decline if policy support is weak or sentiment cools down [8]. - Caustic soda: The futures price has strengthened due to the elimination of backward production capacity. The alumina industry is stable, but the caustic soda inventory has increased, non - aluminum demand is weak, and new production capacity is expected to be put into operation. There is a need to focus on policy implementation [9]. 3.2.4 Trading Strategies - Unilateral trading: For both caustic soda and PVC, before policy implementation, they are expected to be oscillatingly strong. There is a risk of price decline if policy support is weak or sentiment cools down [10]. - Arbitrage: Temporarily on the sidelines [11]. - Options: Temporarily on the sidelines [11]. 3.3 Third Part: Related Attachments The report provides multiple charts showing the price trends, basis trends, spreads, positions, warehouse receipts, spot prices, raw material prices, and profit trends of PVC and caustic soda futures contracts, with data sources including Galaxy Futures, WIND, Zhuochuang, and Longzhong [14][16][19][20][24][25][27][29][30][31][33][34][36][40][41][42][43].