银河期货航运日报-20250723
Yin He Qi Huo·2025-07-23 13:32
- Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The container shipping market is in a state of continuous game with mainstream shipping companies having differentiated quotes, and the EC disk generally maintains a volatile trend. Attention should be paid to the progress of tariff negotiations and the cease - fire negotiation in the Middle East [4][5]. - For the dry bulk shipping market, the Baltic Dry Bulk Freight Index rose on Tuesday driven by the increase in Capesize ship freight rates. The market demand for large - sized ships is expected to improve in the short - term, while the medium - sized ship market lacks the impetus for continuous rise in the short - term but has a good peak - season shipping expectation later [17][20]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Container Shipping - Container Shipping Index (European Line) Futures Disk - Different futures contracts show different price changes. For example, EC2510 closed at 1537 points on July 23, down 0.71% from the previous day's closing price. The trading volume and open interest of most contracts also changed, with some increasing and some decreasing [2]. Monthly Difference Structure - The spreads between different contracts also changed. For example, the spread of EC08 - EC10 was 703, up 1 [2]. Container Freight Rates - Container freight rates vary by route. The SCFIS European Line was 2400.50 points, down 0.89% week - on - week and 62.01% year - on - year. Some routes' freight rates increased week - on - week, while others decreased [2]. Fuel Costs - WTI crude oil near - month price was $64.58 per barrel, down 1.84% week - on - week and 16.40% year - on - year. Brent crude oil near - month price was $67.89 per barrel, down 0.56% week - on - week and 16.5% year - on - year [2]. Market Analysis and Strategy Recommendation - The market is in a game state with mainstream shipping companies' quotes being differentiated. Attention should be paid to tariff negotiations and cease - fire negotiations in the Middle East. The trading strategies include holding or rolling short positions in the EC2510 off - season contract and conducting rolling operations for the 10 - 12 reverse spread [4][5][8]. Dry Bulk Shipping Dry Bulk Freight Index - On July 22, the Baltic Dry Bulk Freight Index rose 19 points, or 0.94%, to 2035 points. The Capesize ship freight index rose 80 points or 2.7% to 3061 points, while the Panamax ship freight index fell 6 points, or 0.3%, to 1909 points [16][17]. Spot Freight Rates - On July 22, the freight rate of the Capesize ship iron ore route from Tubarao, Brazil to Qingdao was $23.12 per ton, up 0.81% week - on - week. As of July 18, the freight rates of some coal and bauxite routes also changed [18]. Shipment Data - From July 14 to July 20, 2025, the global iron ore shipment volume was 3109.1 million tons, up 122.0 million tons week - on - week. In July 2025, Brazil shipped 743.68 million tons of soybeans in the third week [19]. Market Analysis and Outlook - The Capesize ship market has a general cargo volume with increasing market wait - and - see sentiment, but shipowners' quotes are relatively firm, and freight rates rose slightly. The Panamax ship market's demand for grain and coal transportation decreased, and the market sentiment was stable with slightly fluctuating freight rates. The market transportation demand is expected to improve in the short - term, and attention should be paid to the iron ore shipment demand in mid - and early August [20].