Shenwan Hongyuan Securities·2025-07-23 13:44Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the brokerage sector, reiterating a "Look Favorably" rating for the sector [2]. Core Insights - The active equity fund's heavy allocation to the non-bank sector reached a three-year high in Q2 2025, with a heavy allocation ratio of 2.16%, up 0.99 percentage points quarter-on-quarter [2]. - The non-bank sector's share of total A-share market capitalization increased by 21 basis points quarter-on-quarter to 7.04% in Q2 2025, indicating a low allocation coefficient of 0.31 compared to the historical average of 0.35 [2][4]. - The report highlights a significant increase in trading activity, with the average daily trading volume in the A-share market rising to 1.41 trillion yuan year-to-date, and reaching 1.56 trillion yuan in July [2]. - The report notes that 26 traditional brokerages have reported a positive performance forecast for the first half of 2025, with some firms expecting over 100% year-on-year growth [9]. - The report emphasizes the narrowing premium rate of A/H shares, suggesting a potential for A-share brokerages to catch up in performance [2]. Summary by Sections Heavy Allocation Analysis - In Q2 2025, the top five holdings in the non-bank sector included China Ping An (8.81 billion), China Pacific Insurance (5.42 billion), Huatai Securities (2.46 billion), CITIC Securities (1.86 billion), and New China Life Insurance (2.93 billion) [2]. - The report identifies that the most under-allocated stocks in the non-bank sector have seen significant increases in fund allocations, with China Ping An's A/H heavy allocation rising by 71% and 735% respectively [2]. Market Activity - The report indicates that the margin trading balance remains high at 1.93 trillion yuan as of July 22, 2025, reflecting robust market activity [2]. - The report also notes that the brokerage sector's performance has lagged behind the Hong Kong Securities Index, which has risen by 49.92% year-to-date, while the average increase for A/H brokerage stocks is only 4.63% [2]. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on three investment themes within the brokerage sector: 1. Strong comprehensive capabilities of leading firms such as Guotai Junan A+H, GF Securities A+H, and CITIC Securities A+H [2]. 2. Brokerages with significant earnings elasticity, including Dongfang Securities A+H, Eastmoney, and招商证券 A+H [2]. 3. Firms with strong international business competitiveness, recommending China Galaxy A+H and CICC A+H [2].