煤焦：供给侧政策预期强化盘面，注意风险控制

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The market is trading on the positive expectations under the policy orientation of "anti - involution" and "stable growth". The unexpected release of the over - production verification policy has led to the continued release of market excitement, driving the futures and spot prices to run strongly in resonance. However, attention should be paid to the technical correction risk after the rapid rise of the market [3] Group 3: Summary According to the Directory Market Performance - Yesterday, the prices of coal and coke futures rose strongly, with multiple contracts hitting consecutive daily limits. The night - session near - month coking coal contract continued to hit the daily limit. The spot market was also strong, and the second round of coke price increases was being gradually implemented [2] Policy Factors - The market spread that the National Energy Administration recently issued a document on organizing and carrying out the verification of coal mine production. The verification covers production coal mines in 8 provinces (autonomous regions) including Shanxi, Inner Mongolia, etc. The most concerned content in the verification is whether the annual raw coal output in 2024 exceeded the announced production capacity and whether the monthly raw coal output from January to June 2025 exceeded 10% of the announced production capacity. This policy will standardize the production behavior of coal mining enterprises and further stimulate the rise of coal prices [2] Fundamental Factors - Last week, coal mines in the main production areas of Shanxi continued the resumption rhythm, but the overall resumption process was still slow. Downstream procurement enthusiasm was high, and the demand for replenishment and speculation was concentratedly released. The pressure of high supply and high inventory of coal mines was significantly reduced, and coal prices were prone to rise and difficult to fall in the short term. On the demand side, coking plants and steel mills have accelerated their raw material replenishment. The available days of coking coal inventory in the plants have rebounded from a low level, and the average daily hot metal output of steel mill blast furnaces has rebounded to 2.4244 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.0263 million tons [2]