铝锭：工业金属高位运行，关注宏观情绪

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Ratings - No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the report. Group 2: Core Views - The price of finished products is expected to move in a volatile and weak manner, with the focus shifting downward [1][2] - The price of aluminum ingots is expected to be relatively strong in the short - term, and attention should be paid to macro - sentiment and downstream starts [3] Group 3: Summary by Related Content Finished Products - During the Spring Festival, short - process construction steel enterprises in Yunnan and Guizhou regions are expected to affect the total output of construction steel by 74.1 tons, and 6 short - process steel mills in Anhui will also have production cuts, with a daily output reduction of about 1.62 tons for some [1][2] - From December 30, 2024, to January 5, 2025, the total transaction area of newly built commercial housing in 10 key cities decreased by 40.3% month - on - month and increased by 43.2% year - on - year [2] - The price of finished products continued to decline yesterday, reaching a new low. In the context of weak supply and demand, the market sentiment is pessimistic, and winter storage is sluggish, so the price support is weak [2] Aluminum - From January to June, China's cumulative import of bauxite increased by 34% year - on - year. With some enterprises starting maintenance in late July, the operating capacity of alumina may decline, while the demand in the southwest region will increase due to the commissioning of some electrolytic aluminum capacity replacement projects. However, the supply of alumina is still relatively loose overall [2] - As of July 21, the inventory of electrolytic aluminum ingots in domestic mainstream consumption areas was 49.80 tons, with fluctuations. The reduction of aluminum rod production at the end of the month led to an increase in ingot production, and the increase in supply was the core driver of inventory accumulation in the off - season [2] - Macro risks are increasing, and short - term policy boosts the metal price. The short - term aluminum price is expected to be relatively strong in the range, and attention should be paid to the inventory - consumption trend [3]