Investment Rating - The report gives an investment rating of "Overweight" for the dairy industry, indicating an expectation for the industry to outperform the overall market [65]. Core Insights - The dairy industry is experiencing a cyclical downturn in fresh milk prices, with a potential turning point expected in 2025. The price of fresh milk reached a low of 3.04 yuan/kg in July 2025, following a peak of 4.38 yuan/kg in August 2021. This cycle typically spans approximately eight years [21][30]. - The overall production of dairy products in China has increased from 26.518 million tons in 2014 to 29.618 million tons in 2024, with a compound annual growth rate of 1.11% [32][33]. - The report highlights a trend of consolidation in the dairy supply chain, with larger farms increasingly dominating the market. The number of farms with over 1,000 head of cattle has risen to 12% by 2022 [26][30]. Summary by Sections Dairy Industry Overview - The dairy industry has a long supply chain, including feed, dairy farming, processing, and retail. Major dairy companies are concentrated in regions such as Northwest, North China, and East China, particularly in Inner Mongolia and Zhejiang [3][11][17]. Fresh Milk Price Cycle - The fresh milk price cycle has shown a pattern of peaks and troughs approximately every eight years. The last peak was in February 2014 at 4.27 yuan/kg, followed by a decline that stabilized around 3.4 yuan/kg until 2015. The current cycle began in 2018, peaking in 2021 and declining to 3.04 yuan/kg by July 2025 [21][28][30]. Companies in the Dairy Sector - The report identifies 17 dairy-related companies listed on the New Third Board and the Beijing Stock Exchange. Notable companies include Knight Dairy, Jule Dairy, and Southern Dairy, with Knight Dairy being a listed entity and others in the process of listing [4][35]. - Knight Dairy has shown a steady revenue growth trend, with a revenue of 3.70 billion yuan in Q1 2025, marking a year-on-year increase of 55.88%. However, its net profit has declined by 38.70% [4][39]. - Jule Dairy, known for its "Suanle Milk" product, reported a revenue of 1.641 billion yuan in 2024, a 5.06% increase year-on-year, with a net profit of 232 million yuan, up 18.35% [5][52]. - Southern Dairy, recognized as a key enterprise in Guizhou, achieved a revenue of 1.817 billion yuan in 2024, reflecting a 0.65% growth, with a net profit of 209 million yuan, up 4.36% [6][59].
北交所行业主题报告：北交所乳业：活牛价格反弹先行，原奶周期拐点在即，产业链公司或迎改善