银河期货花生日报-20250723

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The supply of peanuts remains tight, but downstream demand is still weak, so short - term peanut prices are relatively weak. Peanut oil spot prices are stable, and peanut meal prices have been stable recently. Oil mills' theoretical profit from peanut pressing is acceptable. Peanut 10 futures are in a narrow - range shock, and it is expected that the planting area will increase and the planting cost will decrease, so Peanut 10 will continue to fluctuate in a narrow range [5][8][9] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Data - Futures盘面: PK604 closed at 8026, up 8 (0.10%), with a trading volume of 29 (up 7.41%) and an open interest of 195 (up 4.28%); PK510 closed at 8142, up 2 (0.02%), with a trading volume of 39,891 (down 42.72%) and an open interest of 95,829 (up 1.04%); PK601 closed at 7990, down 6 (- 0.08%), with a trading volume of 1,820 (down 48.00%) and an open interest of 9,762 (up 5.74%) [3] - Spot and Basis: In the spot market, the price of peanuts in Henan Nanyang was 9000, down 200; in Shandong Jining and Linyi, it was 8600, unchanged. The price of peanut meal in Rizhao was 3300, unchanged, and the price of soybean meal in Rizhao was 2920, up 20. The price of peanut oil was 15000, unchanged, and the price of first - grade soybean oil in Rizhao was 8200, down 20. The basis for Henan Nanyang was 858, and for Shandong Jining and Linyi was 458. The price difference between soybean meal and peanut meal was 1, and the price difference between peanut oil and soybean oil was 6800. The import price of Sudanese peanuts was 8300, unchanged [3] - Price Difference: The price difference between PK01 - PK04 was - 36, down 14; between PK04 - PK10 was - 116, up 6; between PK10 - PK01 was 152, up 8 [3] 2. Market Analysis - Peanut prices in Henan and Northeast China were stable. In Northeast China, the price of 308 general peanuts in Fuyu, Jilin was 4.4 yuan/jin, and in Changtu, Liaoning was 4.5 yuan/jin, both unchanged from the previous day. In Henan, the price of Baisha general peanuts was 4.4 - 4.50 yuan/jin, unchanged. The price in Junan, Shandong was 4.1 yuan/jin, up 0.05 yuan/jin. The price of imported Sudanese refined peanuts was 8300 yuan/ton, unchanged. Most peanut oil mills stopped purchasing today, with the mainstream transaction price at 7650 - 7700 yuan/ton, and the theoretical cost - recovery price of oil mills at 8110 yuan/ton. The prices of soybean oil and peanut oil were stable [5] - In the by - product market, the spot price of soybean meal in Rizhao was strong, at 2910 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan/ton. The unit - protein price difference between peanut meal and soybean meal was relatively high, and short - term peanut meal was weak, with the 48 - protein peanut meal quoted at 3250 yuan/ton [8] 3. Trading Strategies - Unilateral: Peanut 10 futures are in a high - level shock, and short - term investors are advised to wait and see [10] - Monthly Spread: For the spread between Peanut 10 and 1, investors should mainly conduct reverse arbitrage at low levels [11] - Options: Sell pk510 - C - 8800 [12] 4. Related Attachments - The report provides six charts, including the spot price of peanuts in Shandong, the pressing profit of peanut oil mills, the price of peanut oil, the basis between peanut spot and continuous contracts, the spread between Peanut 10 - 1 contracts, and the spread between Peanut 1 - 4 contracts [15][20][21]