银河期货粕类日报-20250723

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The US soybean futures market continues to oscillate with limited changes, while the domestic soybean meal futures show a strong upward trend, reflecting concerns about future supply uncertainties. The upward momentum of rapeseed meal has slowed, and there are still many uncertainties in the future [4]. - The new US soybean crop is generally bearish, with limited upside potential after the recent rebound. The overall supply of the new soybean market is loose, and the support is limited. The domestic soybean meal and rapeseed meal markets have different trends, and the monthly spreads of rapeseed meal have declined [4][5]. - The domestic soybean meal market lacks substantial positive factors, and the international market also lacks substantial positives. The upward space for soybean meal is limited, and there may be a short - term correction pressure. Rapeseed meal also faces pressure, and it is difficult to continue to strengthen [8]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Review - Futures Prices: The US soybean futures oscillated, the domestic soybean meal futures rose rapidly, and the upward trend of rapeseed meal slowed. The monthly spreads of domestic soybean meal futures oscillated slightly, and the decline of rapeseed meal monthly spreads slowed [4]. - Spot Basis and Spreads: The spot basis of soybean meal and rapeseed meal in different regions changed little, and the spreads between different varieties and months also showed different trends. For example, the 5 - 9 spread of soybean meal remained unchanged, while the 5 - 9 spread of rapeseed meal decreased by 16 [4]. 3.2 Fundamental Analysis - US Soybeans: As of the week ending July 20, the good - to - excellent rate of US soybeans was 68%, down from 70% the previous week. The export inspection volume of old US soybeans in the week ending July 17 was 365,000 tons. The soybean crushing data in June was good, with the NOPA - caliber soybean crushing volume reaching 185.709 million bushels, a year - on - year increase of 5.76% [5]. - South American Soybeans: Brazilian farmers' selling progress has accelerated but is still slow. Brazilian soybean crushing has improved, but it has limited impact on alleviating supply pressure. The subsequent domestic soybean crushing volume in Argentina may improve, but the improvement space is limited [5]. - Domestic Market: The domestic soybean meal spot market is relatively loose, with increased oil mill operating rates, sufficient supply, and gradually accumulated inventory. The demand for rapeseed meal has gradually weakened, and the supply pressure still exists [6]. 3.3 Macro Analysis - The Sino - US negotiations in London have ended, but there is no clear information. The market is still worried about future supply uncertainties. Although the macro - level disturbances are decreasing, the short - term decline of China's long - term soybean demand for the US market is unlikely [7]. 3.4 Logical Analysis - Soybean Meal: The domestic soybean meal futures are strong, but the upward driving force is general, and the continuous upward space is limited. The international market also lacks substantial positives, and there may be a decline pressure [8]. - Rapeseed Meal: The fundamentals of rapeseed meal have changed little. The uncertainty of Australian rapeseed imports makes it difficult to find a clear trading logic. The overall supply is relatively sufficient, and it is difficult for rapeseed meal to continue to strengthen [8]. - Spreads: The upward space for soybean meal spreads is limited, and there may be a decline pressure. Rapeseed meal spreads also face pressure, and the decline may continue. The spread between soybean meal and rapeseed meal oscillates [8]. 3.5 Trading Strategies - Single - sided Trading: Hold a wait - and - see attitude. - Arbitrage: Reduce and exit the RM91 reverse arbitrage position. - Options: Hold a wait - and - see attitude [9]