资产配置日报：商品多头或在撤退-20250723

Group 1: Market Overview - The commodity market shows signs of cooling after a period of rapid growth, with significant fluctuations in stock indices and bond market stabilization [1][2] - Domestic commodity markets have experienced a decline in consistent bullish sentiment, leading to increased divergence among sectors and products [2][3] - The current market is characterized by a shift from excessive trading expectations to a more rational approach, indicating potential profit-taking and risk management [2][3] Group 2: Commodity Price Dynamics - Futures prices for certain commodities have significantly outpaced spot prices, indicating strong bullish expectations but also accumulating risks of price corrections [3] - The price differentials between near and far-month contracts suggest a softening of optimistic sentiment regarding future price increases [3][4] - Regulatory bodies have issued risk warnings for popular commodities to guide market participants towards more rational trading behaviors [4] Group 3: Stock Market Trends - The stock market is experiencing a rotation of funds from high-performing sectors to lower-performing ones, with technology and consumer sectors gaining attention [10][11] - The infrastructure sector is facing increased pressure, with a notable decline in related indices as market sentiment shifts [9][11] - The performance of the Hong Kong stock market has been strong, driven by large internet companies and positive fund flows [10] Group 4: Bond Market Insights - The bond market is entering a potential recovery phase, with investors considering long-duration assets amid recent adjustments [8] - The yield on government bonds has seen slight increases, reflecting changes in market risk preferences [6][8] - The overall bond market sentiment remains cautious, with investors closely monitoring commodity price movements and their implications for interest rates [7][8]