债市基本面高频数据跟踪报告：价格大涨，需求仍弱：2025年7月第3周

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided on the industry investment rating in the report. Core Viewpoints The report indicates that economic growth shows a situation of significant price increases but weak demand, with inflation characterized by insufficient momentum for a rebound in pork prices and weak and volatile oil prices [1][2]. Summary by Directory 1. Economic Growth: Significant Price Increases, Weak Demand 1.1 Production: Most Operating Rates Rebound - Power Plant Daily Consumption Fluctuates at a High Level: On July 22, the average daily consumption of 6 major power - generating groups was 882,000 tons, a 1.7% decrease from July 15. On July 15, the daily consumption of power plants in eight southern provinces was 2.27 million tons, a 5.7% increase from July 10 [4][11]. - Blast Furnace Operating Rate Recovers Moderately: On July 18, the national blast furnace operating rate was 83.5%, a 0.4 - percentage - point increase from July 11; the capacity utilization rate was 90.9%, a 1.1 - percentage - point increase from July 11. In Tangshan, the blast furnace operating rate of steel mills was 92.0% on July 18, a 0.8 - percentage - point increase from July 11 [4][14]. - Tire Operating Rate Rebounds for Two Consecutive Weeks: On July 17, the operating rate of all - steel truck tires was 65.1%, a 0.5 - percentage - point increase from July 10; the operating rate of semi - steel car tires was 76.0%, a 3.1 - percentage - point increase from July 10. The operating rate of looms in the Jiangsu and Zhejiang regions fluctuated within a narrow range [4][16]. 1.2 Demand: Steel and Glass Prices Rise Significantly - New Home Sales in 30 Cities Turn Negative Month - on - Month: From July 1 to 22, the average daily sales area of commercial housing in 30 large and medium - sized cities was 192,000 square meters, a 21.8% decrease compared to the same period in June, a 21.7% decrease compared to July last year, and a 35.1% decrease compared to July 2023 [4][21]. - Automobile Market Retail Sales are Stable and Strong: In July, retail sales increased by 7% year - on - year, and wholesale sales increased by 34% year - on - year [4][23]. - Steel Prices Strengthen Further: On July 22, the prices of rebar, wire rod, hot - rolled coil, and cold - rolled coil increased by 6.0%, 5.6%, 6.4%, and 3.4% respectively compared to July 15 [4][30]. - Cement Prices are Continuously Under Pressure: On July 22, the national cement price index decreased by 2.1% compared to July 15. The cement prices in the East China and Yangtze River regions decreased by 3.3% and 1.7% respectively [4][31]. - Glass Prices Rise Significantly: On July 22, the active glass futures contract price was 1,203 yuan per ton, an 11.2% increase compared to July 15 [4][35]. - Container Shipping Freight Index Fails to Peak in the Peak Season: On July 18, the CCFI index decreased by 0.8% compared to July 11, and the SCFI index decreased by 5.0% [4][38]. 2. Inflation: Insufficient Momentum for a Rebound in Pork Prices 2.1 CPI: Insufficient Momentum for a Rebound in Pork Prices - Pork Price Rebound Lacks Momentum: On July 22, the average wholesale price of pork was 20.7 yuan per kilogram, remaining stable compared to July 15. Since July, the average wholesale price of pork has increased by 1.2% month - on - month [4][44]. - Agricultural Product Price Index Fluctuates at the Bottom: On July 22, the agricultural product wholesale price index decreased by 0.2% compared to July 15. By variety, eggs (up 4.9%) > chicken (up 1.1%) > beef (up 0.3%) > vegetables (up 0.2%) > pork (flat) > mutton (down 0.5%) > fruits (down 3.2%) [4][49]. 2.2 PPI: Oil Prices are Weak and Volatile - Oil Prices are Weak and Volatile: On July 22, the spot prices of Brent and WTI crude oil were $70.0 and $65.3 per barrel respectively, a 1.6% and 1.8% decrease compared to July 15 [4][52]. - Copper and Aluminum Prices Rise: On July 22, the prices of LME 3 - month copper and aluminum increased by 2.5% and 1.6% respectively compared to July 15 [4][56]. - Most Industrial Product Prices Rise: Since July, most industrial product prices have risen. The month - on - month prices of wire rod, cement, and steam coal have decreased, while other industrial product prices have increased month - on - month, with coking coal and coke leading the gains. The year - on - year decline of most industrial product prices has narrowed [4][60].