格林大华期货早盘提示-20250724

Report Industry Investment Ratings - All three commodities (corn, pork, and eggs) are rated as "Range" [1][3] Core Views - The market for corn has short - term support and pressure, with the mid - term supply pattern expected to tighten but the long - term price increase limited by policies and substitutes. Pork futures were boosted by sentiment but will return to supply - demand fundamentals, with short - term price fluctuations, mid - term supply increase expectations, and long - term high production capacity. Egg prices are expected to strengthen in the short - term, have a potential mid - term rebound, but may face pressure in the long - term if the elimination of laying hens is less than expected [1][3][4] Summary by Commodity Corn - Market Review: The night - session of the previous day saw corn futures fluctuating. The 2509 contract rose 0.17% to close at 2315 yuan/ton [1] - Important Information: Spot prices were weak and stable, with port prices slightly down and deep - processing enterprise prices mostly stable. As of July 23, futures warehouse receipts decreased by 207 to 175,450 hands. An auction of 195,017 tons of imported corn is scheduled for July 25 [1] - Market Logic: Short - term price increases are limited; mid - term prices may rise but with limited upside; long - term prices are restricted by policies and substitutes [1] - Trading Strategy: Long - term range operation; mid - term low - buying; short - term testing of support and pressure. The 2509 contract was suggested for band - buying, with pressure at 2340 - 2360 [1] Pork - Market Review: The previous day, all main pork futures contracts rose. The LH2509 contract rose 1.67% to 14,590 yuan/ton, and the LH2511 contract rose 2.77% to 14,300 yuan/ton [3] - Important Information: On July 23, the national average pig price was 14.23 yuan/kg, down 0.11 yuan/kg from the previous day. In June 2025, the number of breeding sows was 40.43 million, up 0.1% year - on - year. The inventory of medium and large pigs decreased by 0.8% in June. The fat - standard price difference on July 23 was 0.16 yuan/jin, up 0.01 yuan/jin. The weekly average slaughter weight on July 17 was 124.56 kg, down 0.18 kg. On July 23, the number of futures warehouse receipts remained unchanged at 284. The Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs held a symposium on promoting high - quality development of the pig industry [3] - Market Logic: Futures were driven up by sentiment but will return to supply - demand. Short - term prices may fluctuate; mid - term supply may increase; long - term production capacity remains high [3] - Trading Strategy: Long - term short - selling; mid - term range operation; short - term, breeding enterprises are advised to consider selling hedging when far - month contracts face pressure. Pressure levels for 2509, 2511, and 2601 contracts are provided [3] Eggs - Market Review: The previous day, egg futures rose and then fell. The JD2509 contract rose 0.36% to 3637 yuan/500kg [3] - Important Information: Egg prices continued to rise. The average price in the main production areas was 3.31 yuan/jin, up 0.08 yuan/jin, and in the main sales areas was 3.67 yuan/jin, up 0.06 yuan/jin. The average inventory in the production and circulation links was 0.89 and 1.01 days respectively. The average price of old hens was 5.79 yuan/jin, up 0.08 yuan/jin. In June, the inventory of laying hens was about 1.34 billion, and the estimated inventory in July is 1.352 billion [3] - Market Logic: Short - term prices may strengthen; mid - term prices may rebound but with limited upside; long - term prices may face pressure if the elimination of laying hens is less than expected [4] - Trading Strategy: The 09 contract has a short - long and long - short strategy, with pressure at 3680 - 3700 and support at 3500 - 3550. The 10 contract is in a range, and short - selling opportunities for 2512, 2601, 2602, and 2603 contracts are suggested if the elimination is less than expected [4]