软商品日报：供应前景改善，白糖震荡为主-20250724

Report Industry Investment Rating - Sugar: Sideways [1] - Cotton: Sideways [1] Core Viewpoints of the Report - Sugar: Affected by the continuous drought from autumn to spring, the emergence and early growth of sugarcane in Guangxi were unfavorable, with the growth and number of plants shorter and fewer than the same period last year. The growth of sugar beets is generally good, but there has been excessive rainfall in the Inner Mongolia production area recently, which may lead to pests and diseases and requires early prevention. Internationally, attention should continue to be paid to the sugar production progress in Brazil and the growth of sugar crops in the Northern Hemisphere [1]. - Cotton: Most cotton - growing areas in China have entered the budding to flowering stage, with the growth progress 4 to 7 days earlier than in previous years. According to the climate forecast of the China Meteorological Administration, the temperature in Xinjiang will continue to be high in July, and the number of high - temperature days will exceed the same period in previous years, posing a high risk of heat damage to cotton. Currently, the total cotton inventory is decreasing, but the downstream market shows obvious off - season characteristics, and textile enterprises are cautious in raw material procurement. Therefore, attention should be paid to the impact of weather changes and tariff uncertainties [1]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Data Overview 1. Foreign Market Quotes - US sugar (USD): On July 21, 2025, it was 16.36, and on July 22, 2025, it was 16.26, a decrease of 0.61% [3]. - US cotton (USD): On July 21, 2025, it was 68.09, and on July 22, 2025, it was 68.26, an increase of 0.25% [3]. 2. Spot Prices - Sugar (Nanning): On July 21, 2025, it was 6060.0, and on July 22, 2025, it was 6050.0, a decrease of 0.17% [3]. - Sugar (Kunming): On July 21, 2025, it was 5920.0, and on July 22, 2025, it remained 5920.0, with a 0.00% change [3]. - Cotton Index 328: On July 21, 2025, it was 3281, and on July 22, 2025, it was 3280, a decrease of 0.26% [3]. - Cotton (Xinjiang): On July 21, 2025, it was 15400.0, and on July 22, 2025, it was 15500.0, an increase of 0.65% [3]. 3. Spread Overview - SR01 - 05: On July 21, 2025, it was 54.0, and on July 22, 2025, it was 49.0, a decrease of 9.26% [3]. - SR05 - 09: On July 21, 2025, it was - 223.0, and on July 22, 2025, it was - 219.0, a decrease of 1.79% [3]. - SR09 - 01: On July 21, 2025, it was 169.0, and on July 22, 2025, it was 170.0, an increase of 0.59% [3]. - CF01 - 05: On July 21, 2025, it was 45.0, and on July 22, 2025, it was 40.0, a decrease of 11.11% [3]. - CF05 - 09: On July 21, 2025, it was - 240.0, and on July 22, 2025, it was - 235.0, a decrease of 2.08% [3]. - CF09 - 01: On July 21, 2025, it was 195.0, and on July 22, 2025, it remained 195.0, with a 0.00% change [3]. - Sugar 01 basis: On July 21, 2025, it was 250.0, and on July 22, 2025, it was 267.0, an increase of 6.80% [3]. - Sugar 05 basis: On July 21, 2025, it was 304.0, and on July 22, 2025, it was 316.0, an increase of 3.95% [3]. - Sugar 09 basis: On July 21, 2025, it was 81.0, and on July 22, 2025, it was 97.0, an increase of 19.75% [3]. - Cotton 01 basis: On July 21, 2025, it was 1599.0, and on July 22, 2025, it was 1519.0, a decrease of 5.00% [3]. - Cotton 05 basis: On July 21, 2025, it was 1644.0, and on July 22, 2025, it was 1559.0, a decrease of 5.17% [3]. - Cotton 09 basis: On July 21, 2025, it was 1404.0, and on July 22, 2025, it was 1324.0, a decrease of 5.70% [3]. 4. Import Prices - Cotton cotlookA: On July 21, 2025, it was 79.45, and on July 22, 2025, it was 78.65, a decrease of 1.01% [3]. 5. Profit Margins - Sugar import profit: On July 21, 2025, it was 1613.0, and on July 22, 2025, it was 1630.0, an increase of 1.05% [3]. 6. Options - SR509C5800: Implied volatility is 0.0871, and the futures underlying is SR509, with a historical volatility of 7.03 [3]. - SR509P5800: Implied volatility is 0.0845 [3]. - CF509C14200: Implied volatility is 0.1357, and the futures underlying is CF509, with a historical volatility of 8.59 [3]. - CF509P14200: Implied volatility is 0.1357 [3]. 7. Warehouse Receipts (sheets) - Sugar: On July 21, 2025, it was 21437.0, and on July 22, 2025, it was 21359.0, a decrease of 0.36% [3]. - Cotton: On July 21, 2025, it was 9501.0, and on July 22, 2025, it was 9436.0, a decrease of 0.68% [3]. Company Information - Cinda Futures Co., Ltd. is a limited liability company specializing in domestic futures business. It is wholly - owned by Cinda Securities Co., Ltd., with a registered capital of 600 million RMB. It is one of the large - scale, standardized and high - reputation futures companies in China. It is a full - settlement member of the China Financial Futures Exchange, a full - fledged member of the Shanghai Futures Exchange, Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange, and Dalian Commodity Exchange, a member of the Shanghai International Energy Exchange and Guangzhou Futures Exchange, an observer of the China Securities Association, and an observer member of the Asset Management Association of China [8].