万联晨会-20250724

Core Viewpoints - The A-share market experienced fluctuations, with the Shanghai Composite Index closing at 3582.3 points, up 0.01%, while the Shenzhen Component Index fell by 0.37% and the ChiNext Index remained unchanged [1][6] - The trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets reached 1.86 trillion yuan, with sectors such as non-bank financials, beauty care, and home appliances leading the gains, while construction materials, military industry, and machinery equipment lagged [1][6] - The Hang Seng Index in Hong Kong rose by 1.62% to close at 25,538.07 points, and major overseas indices also saw gains, indicating a generally positive market sentiment [1][6] Important News - The Hainan Free Trade Port will officially start its full island closure operation on December 18, 2025, with a series of policy measures to be implemented, including an increase in the proportion of "zero tariff" goods from 21% to 74% [2][7] - The upcoming economic talks between China and the U.S. will be held in Sweden from July 27 to 30, focusing on mutual economic concerns and cooperation [7] Investment Highlights - The confirmed closure date for Hainan and updated policy measures indicate a significant shift towards more open trade practices, with "zero tariff" goods coverage expanding from 1,900 to approximately 6,600 items, representing a 53 percentage point increase [9][11] - The scope of beneficiaries for the "zero tariff" policy has broadened, now including various enterprises and institutions with actual import needs, enhancing the competitive landscape [11] - The tourism sector in Hainan is expected to benefit significantly from the new policies, with projections of 97.2 million visitors in 2024, reflecting an 8% year-on-year growth, and a notable increase in inbound tourism [12][13] - The impact of the full closure on duty-free businesses is twofold, potentially increasing customer flow while also intensifying competition due to lower prices of imported goods [13]