研究所晨会观点精萃-20250724

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Overseas, the US has reached trade agreements with Japan and is likely to reach one with the EU, leading to a decline in market risk - aversion and a continued rise in global risk appetite. Domestically, China's economic growth in H1 was higher than expected, but consumption and investment slowed in June. Policy measures are expected to boost domestic risk appetite. [2] - Different asset classes have different short - term trends: stocks are expected to be slightly stronger in the short - term; bonds may experience a high - level correction; commodities in different sectors have different trends, with some being slightly stronger and some being volatile. [2] Summary by Related Catalogs Macro - finance - Macro situation: Overseas, the US - Japan trade agreement sets a 15% tariff rate on Japan, and the probability of the US - EU trade agreement has increased. Market risk appetite has risen, and the US dollar index is weak. Domestically, H1 economic growth was higher than expected, but June consumption and investment slowed. Policy measures aim to boost domestic risk appetite. [2] - Asset trends: Stocks are expected to be slightly stronger in the short - term and it's advisable to be cautiously long; bonds are expected to correct at a high level and it's advisable to wait and see; for commodities, black metals may have increased short - term fluctuations and it's advisable to be cautiously long; non - ferrous metals may rebound with short - term fluctuations and it's advisable to be cautiously long; energy and chemicals may fluctuate and it's advisable to wait and see; precious metals may be volatile at a high level and it's advisable to be cautiously long. [2] Stock Index - The domestic stock market continued to rise, driven by sectors such as hydropower, securities, insurance, and kitchen and bathroom appliances. The short - term macro upward drive has strengthened, and attention should be paid to the progress of Sino - US trade negotiations and the implementation of domestic incremental policies. It's advisable to be cautiously long in the short - term. [3] Precious Metals - The precious metals market declined on Wednesday. With the approaching tariff deadline on August 1st, market risk appetite has recovered, putting pressure on precious metals. The Fed's interest - rate cut expectation has slowed. In the short - term, precious metals are expected to be volatile at a high level, and gold still has strategic allocation value in the long - term. [3] Black Metals - Steel: Steel futures and spot prices continued to rebound. The "anti - involution" policy supports the cost of steel, and the actual demand is okay. The supply increase space is limited in the short - term. It's advisable to view the steel market as slightly stronger with fluctuations in the short - term. [4][5] - Iron ore: Iron ore futures and spot prices weakened on Wednesday. The iron - water output is at a high level with limited upward space. The supply and demand situation is complex, and it's advisable to view the price as range - bound in the short - term. [5] - Silicon manganese/silicon iron: The prices of silicon manganese and silicon iron may rebound following coal prices. The production situation of silicon manganese is relatively stable, and the mentality of silicon - iron merchants is positive. [6] Chemicals - Soda ash: The soda ash futures contract was weak on Wednesday. The supply is still in an oversupply situation, the demand is weak, and the profit has declined. The "anti - involution" policy supports the bottom price, but the long - term price is still under pressure. [7] - Glass: The glass futures contract was weak on Wednesday. The supply pressure is increasing, the demand is weak, and the profit has increased. The "anti - involution" policy supports the price. [8] Non - ferrous Metals and New Energy - Copper: The US - Japan trade agreement has an impact on the market. The short - term sentiment is boosted by the industrial policy, but the future copper price depends on the tariff implementation time. [9] - Aluminum: The aluminum price fell, following the alumina trend. The fundamental situation is weak, and the policy impact is limited. It's not advisable to short for now. [9] - Aluminum alloy: The supply of scrap aluminum is tight, and the demand is in the off - season. The short - term price is expected to be slightly stronger with fluctuations, but the upward space is limited. [10] - Tin: The supply is recovering, the demand is weak, and the price is expected to be volatile in the short - term, with upward pressure in the medium - term. [10] - Lithium carbonate: The lithium carbonate futures price fell. The production has increased, and the inventory is accumulating. The short - term price is expected to be slightly stronger with fluctuations due to the "anti - involution" policy. [11] - Industrial silicon: The industrial silicon futures price rose. The "anti - involution" policy drives the price, and it's expected to be slightly stronger with fluctuations in the short - term. [11][12] - Polysilicon: The polysilicon futures price rose significantly. The short - term price is expected to be slightly stronger with fluctuations, and attention should be paid to market feedback and capital changes. [12] Energy and Chemicals - Crude oil: The news of possible progress in US - EU trade negotiations has offset the impact of weak spot markets. However, the increase in Cushing crude oil inventory and upcoming Sino - US trade negotiations bring uncertainties. The oil price is expected to be mainly volatile. [13] - Asphalt: The asphalt price has回调. The demand in the peak season is average, and the inventory is not being effectively reduced. The short - term price will follow the crude oil price but may be weak with fluctuations. [13] - PX: The PX price is in a slightly stronger range - bound situation. The supply is tight, but the upward space is limited. [14] - PTA: The PTA price is expected to be volatile. The demand is in the off - season, and the processing fee is low, with a risk of production reduction. [14] - Ethylene glycol: The ethylene glycol price is oscillating at the support level. The inventory is slightly decreasing, and the price is expected to be volatile. [14] - Methanol: The methanol price is short - term strong but limited by the fundamentals. The inventory has increased, and attention should be paid to capital flow. [16] - PP: The PP price has risen due to policy expectations, but the supply pressure is increasing, and the demand is in the off - season. The long - term price is under pressure. [17] - PL: The PL price has limited upward drivers due to supply pressure and weak demand. The price may be volatile due to new listing and policy impact. [17] - LLDPE: The LLDPE price has adjusted. The import arbitrage window is open, and the demand is weak. The short - term price may rebound but has limited space, and the long - term price may decline. [18] - Urea: The urea price has risen due to market sentiment, but the demand is weakening, and the supply is abundant. The price is expected to be weak with fluctuations. [18][19] Agricultural Products - US soybeans: The price of US soybeans has been affected by weather. The expected rainfall may limit crop pressure. [20] - Soybean and rapeseed meal: It's advisable to increase long positions in US soybeans above 1000. The short - term price of soybean meal is still strong, but the upward space is limited. [20] - Soybean and rapeseed oil: The inventory pressure of soybean oil is high, and the demand is in the off - season. The price of rapeseed oil may decline if palm oil corrects. The soybean - palm oil spread may widen. [21] - Palm oil: It's a short - term bull market for palm oil, but the upward resistance is increasing. It's advisable to be cautious when chasing orders. [21] - Pigs: The supply of pigs is increasing, and the demand is weak. The short - term price is testing the support level. Policy rumors have affected the futures price, but the long - term price increase is limited. [22] - Corn: The corn price has slightly rebounded. The supply is gradually tightening, but the demand is in the off - season. The price is expected to be in a narrow - range oscillation in the short - term. [22][23]