光大证券晨会速递-20250724

Group 1: Market Overview - As of the end of Q2 2025, the total scale of public funds reached 34.4 trillion yuan, a quarter-on-quarter increase of 6.76% [1] - Investors continue to favor stable-return bond products, with high enthusiasm for commodity and overseas asset allocations [1] - In equity funds, only passive products maintained positive growth, while active equity positions slightly increased, focusing on sectors like telecommunications, biomedicine, and non-bank financials [1] Group 2: Industry Research - The urea industry is expected to benefit from the exit of outdated facilities and supply-side reforms, which will improve industry conditions [2] - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology is set to launch a growth plan for the petrochemical industry, aiming to eliminate backward production capacity [2] - Key companies to watch in the nitrogen fertilizer sector include Hualu Hengsheng, Hubei Yihua, Luxi Chemical, and Yangmei Chemical [2] Group 3: Specific Industry Insights - The tungsten market is anticipated to maintain a tight supply-demand balance, with prices expected to remain high over the next three years [3] - Factors such as export controls and the construction of the Yajiang hydropower project are expected to benefit tungsten-related companies [3] - Recommended companies in the tungsten sector include China Tungsten High-Tech, Zhangyuan Tungsten, Xiamen Tungsten, and Xianglu Tungsten [3] Group 4: Real Estate Market - In the first half of 2025, the core 30 cities saw residential land transaction areas increase by 22.6% year-on-year, totaling 48.63 million square meters [4] - The average transaction price of land reached 12,009 yuan per square meter, a year-on-year increase of 22.8% [4] - Investment recommendations focus on structural alpha opportunities, highlighting companies like Poly Developments, China Merchants Shekou, and China Jinmao [4] Group 5: Company Analysis - Zhou Hei Ya is expected to achieve revenue of 1.2 to 1.24 billion yuan in H1 2025, a year-on-year decline of 1.5% to 4.7% [6] - The company anticipates a profit of 90 to 113 million yuan, representing a year-on-year growth of 55.2% to 94.8% [6] - The management's flexible mechanism and clear strategy are expected to lead to continued operational improvements [6]