五矿期货农产品早报-20250724

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The soybean and soybean meal markets are facing a complex situation with both bullish and bearish factors. The overall trend is expected to be range - bound. The domestic soybean import cost may be difficult to decline before the Sino - US soybean trade improves [2]. - The palm oil market is affected by multiple factors such as bio - diesel policies and production levels. It is expected to be volatile, with potential upside in the fourth quarter but limited by various negative factors [2][9]. - The domestic sugar market may see a downward trend in the future due to potential import pressure, assuming no significant rebound in the external market [12]. - The cotton market has limited upside potential due to potential issuance of import quotas and general downstream consumption [15]. - The egg market lacks a clear trend in the short - term, and for post - festival contracts, short - selling opportunities after rebounds can be considered [18]. - The pig market has high - valued futures but faces risks such as over - hedging and potential supply pressure after the seasonal rebound [21]. 3. Summary by Directory Soybean/M粕类 - Market Situation: Wednesday night, US soybean and soybean meal futures declined. The good North American weather restricts the upside, but low valuation, good old - crop sales, and biodiesel policies support demand. The domestic soybean import cost is rising slightly due to a single supply source. The domestic soybean meal market is characterized by low valuation, high short - term supply, active downstream pick - up, and cost support for 9 - 1 month soybean purchases [2]. - Trading Strategy: With the soybean meal market having both bullish and bearish factors, it is recommended to buy on dips at the lower end of the cost range and pay attention to crushing margins and supply pressure at the upper end, while waiting for progress on Sino - US tariffs and new supply - side drivers [4]. Fats and Oils - Important Information: Malaysian palm oil export data shows different trends in different periods in June, and production increased in July. As of July 15, 2025, the total vegetable oil inventory in Indian ports increased by 18% in half a month. The domestic palm oil market was volatile on Wednesday, and the net long positions of foreign capital in the three major fats and oils decreased slightly [6][7]. - Trading Strategy: The palm oil market is expected to be volatile. There is a potential for price increase in the fourth quarter due to the Indonesian B50 policy, but the upside is limited by factors such as annual - level production increase expectations and uncertain RVO rules [9]. Sugar - Key Information: On Wednesday, Zhengzhou sugar futures continued to fluctuate. The 9 - month contract of Zheng sugar closed at 5834 yuan/ton, up 0.19%. The import of syrup and premixed powder decreased year - on - year in 2025 [11]. - Trading Strategy: The domestic sugar market may see a downward trend in the future due to potential import pressure, assuming no significant rebound in the external market [12]. Cotton - Key Information: On Wednesday, Zhengzhou cotton futures continued to fluctuate. The 9 - month contract of Zheng cotton closed at 14180 yuan/ton, down 0.32%. The national new cotton yield per mu in 2025 is expected to increase by 2.5% [14]. - Trading Strategy: Although the Zhengzhou cotton price has rebounded, the downstream consumption is average, and the potential issuance of import quotas in July - August is a negative factor for cotton prices [15]. Eggs - Spot Information: The national egg price mainly increased. The main production area's average price rose to 3.31 yuan/jin. The egg market trading was stable, and the egg price is expected to be mostly stable with a few increases [17]. - Trading Strategy: The short - term egg market lacks a clear trend and is mainly guided by the spot price. For post - festival contracts, short - selling opportunities after rebounds can be considered [18]. Pigs - Spot Information: The domestic pig price mainly declined. The production side's sales were active, but the consumption side was weak, and the pig price is expected to continue to be weak [20]. - Trading Strategy: The futures market is highly valued, but there are risks such as over - hedging and potential supply pressure after the seasonal rebound [21].