国新国证期货早报-20250724

Variety Views Stock Index Futures - On July 23, the three major A - share indexes rose and then fell. The Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.01% to close at 3582.30 points, the Shenzhen Component Index fell 0.37% to 11059.04 points, and the ChiNext Index fell 0.01% to 2310.67 points. The trading volume of the two markets was 1864.6 billion yuan, a decrease of 28.4 billion yuan from the previous day [1] - The CSI 300 index showed a strong shock on July 23, closing at 4119.77, a环比 increase of 0.81 [2] Coking Coal and Coke - On July 23, the coking coal weighted index closed at 1161.9 yuan, with a环比 increase of 105.7, and the coke weighted index closed at 1717.6, with a环比 increase of 58.8 [3][4] - For coke, good steel - enterprise profits drive some blast furnaces to resume production, high daily hot - metal output supports rigid demand, and the second round of spot price increase has started. For coking coal, the notice on production verification tightens the supply expectation, and the inventory has been decreasing for 4 consecutive weeks [5] Zhengzhou Sugar - Early signs indicate a possible global sugar supply surplus in the 2025/26 season. Brazil's dry climate may add about 3.2 million tons of sugar supply. Although the US sugar price fell, the Zhengzhou Sugar 2509 contract rose slightly on July 23, and continued to rise at night due to capital support [5] Rubber - Affected by technical factors, Shanghai rubber oscillated and closed slightly lower on July 23, and fluctuated slightly at night. In June 2025, the global light - vehicle annualized sales reached 93 million vehicles, with a year - on - year increase of 2.1% to 7.73 million vehicles [6] Palm Oil - On July 23, palm oil showed a high - level wide - range shock. The highest price was 9088, the lowest was 8908, and it closed at 8994, up 0.76% from the previous day. Malaysia's palm oil production from July 1 - 20 increased by 11.24% compared with the same period last month [7] Shanghai Copper - Sino - US trade relaxation and domestic policies to stabilize the non - ferrous industry boost market sentiment, but the cooling of interest - rate cut expectations before the Fed's July meeting makes the macro - sentiment neutral. The tight supply of mainstream copper supports the price, and the market is in a tight - balance state [7] Cotton - The main contract of Zhengzhou cotton closed at 14140 yuan/ton on the night of July 23. On July 24, the lowest basis quotation of Xinjiang designated delivery warehouses was 430 yuan/ton, and the cotton inventory decreased by 54 lots [8] Iron Ore - On July 23, the main contract of iron ore 2509 closed down 0.61% at 812 yuan. The shipments from Australia and Brazil decreased slightly, and the arrivals dropped significantly, while the hot - metal output rebounded. The price may fluctuate in the short term [8] Asphalt - On July 23, the main contract of asphalt 2509 closed down 0.47% at 3594 yuan. The operating rate of asphalt plants decreased last week, and the low social inventory increased the refinery shipments. The price will fluctuate in the short term [8] Logs - The 2509 log contract opened at 841.5 on July 22, with a low of 812.5, a high of 848.5, and closed at 823, with a reduction of 3299 lots. The market faced high - level pressure. The spot prices in Shandong and Jiangsu remained unchanged, and the spot trading was weak [8][9] Steel - On July 23, rb2510 closed at 3274 yuan/ton, and hc2510 closed at 3438 yuan/ton. The rising coking coal price drives up the steel cost, but the steel demand is hard to improve in the high - temperature off - season, and the price increase may slow down [9] Alumina - On July 23, ao2509 closed at 3355 yuan/ton. The "anti - involution" policy, bauxite disturbances in Guinea, and low warehouse receipts drive the price up, but the short - term production cut probability is low, and the medium - term oversupply pattern remains unchanged [9] Shanghai Aluminum - On July 23, al2509 closed at 20790 yuan/ton. The electrolytic aluminum supply increases slightly, the downstream operating rate is still weak, and the inventory is in a low - level shock. The current price increase is driven by policies and cost, and the follow - up needs to pay attention to policy implementation and inventory pressure [10][11]