中辉黑色观点-20250724

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Steel: Short - term fluctuations possible, stay on the sidelines [3] - Iron Ore: Take partial profit on previous long positions and wait for new opportunities [6] - Coke: With high - level risks rising, stay on the sidelines [9] - Coking Coal: Due to over - excited sentiment, stay on the sidelines [13] - Ferroalloys: Cautiously bullish as market sentiment dominates [17] Core Views - Steel: For rebar, coal production restrictions drive the black sector up, but production and demand decline, and inventory rises. For hot - rolled coils, the fundamentals are stable. Rapid rallies may lead to short - term fluctuations [4][5]. - Iron Ore: Iron - making water production increases, supply and arrivals both grow. Steel mills' profits are good, but rapid rises offer profit - taking opportunities [7]. - Coke: Spot prices start the second round of increases, and market sentiment is over - excited [11]. - Coking Coal: Production restrictions boost sentiment, but domestic production is rising, and futures sentiment is over - excited [15]. - Ferroalloys: For manganese silicon, supply increases while demand decreases, and cost is supported. For ferrosilicon, there is supply - demand imbalance and high delivery inventory [19]. Summary by Variety Steel Rebar - Market Situation: Coal production restrictions strengthen the bullish atmosphere. Production and apparent demand decline, and inventory rises slightly. Iron - making water production increases, driving up furnace material demand expectations [4]. - Operation Suggestion: Due to strong policy - driven sentiment and rapid rallies, it's advisable to stay on the sidelines. Price range: [3240, 3290] [1]. Hot - rolled Coils - Market Situation: Production, demand, and inventory change little, with limited fundamental contradictions. Market trades around policies, and rising raw materials push up steel prices [5]. - Operation Suggestion: After rapid rallies, short - term fluctuations are possible. Stay on the sidelines. Price range: [3400, 3450] [1]. Iron Ore - Market Situation: Iron - making water production increases significantly, supply and arrivals both grow, and there will be more arrivals. Ports destock, and steel mills restock. Steel mills' profits are good, driving up iron ore prices [7]. - Operation Suggestion: Take partial profit on previous long positions and wait for new opportunities. Price range: [790, 830] [1]. Coke - Market Situation: Spot prices start the second - round increase, and there are expectations for further increases. Coal production restrictions boost sentiment, and steel mills' restocking makes the market more positive, but the atmosphere is over - excited [11]. - Operation Suggestion: Stay on the sidelines. Price range: [1660, 1750] [1]. Coking Coal - Market Situation: Production restrictions strengthen bullish sentiment, and the price rallies. Domestic production is rising, and some mines are resuming production. Inventory transfers from upstream to downstream, and the total inventory is stable. Spot trading improves, but futures sentiment is over - excited [15]. - Operation Suggestion: Stay on the sidelines. Price range: [1100, 1200] [1]. Ferroalloys Manganese Silicon - Market Situation: Supply increases while demand decreases. High - level iron - making water production doesn't offset the decline in rebar production, which drags down demand. Rising raw material prices support costs [19]. - Operation Suggestion: Short - term trading is sentiment - driven. In the medium - term, the fundamentals will loosen, and prices may decline. Price range: [5835, 6040] [1]. Ferrosilicon - Market Situation: Supply increases while demand decreases. Factory inventory pressure eases, but delivery inventory is high, with obvious near - end warrant pressure. Pay attention to inter - month reverse arbitrage opportunities [19]. - Operation Suggestion: Short - term high sentiment may lead to corrections. In the medium - term, the fundamentals will loosen, and prices will decline. Price range: [5715, 5950] [1].