宁证期货今日早评-20250724

Report Summary 1. Investment Ratings - The report does not provide an overall industry investment rating. 2. Core Views - The market is influenced by policy expectations, with the black - chain having a good atmosphere but facing high - valuation callback risks. Different commodities have their own supply - demand situations and price trends, and many are recommended for a wait - and - see approach [2]. 3. Summary by Commodity Coal and Related Products - Coking Coal: The current market is policy - expected dominated. The black - chain has a good atmosphere, but high - valuation risks exist. Attention should be paid to rhythm and risk control [2]. - Methanol: Domestic methanol开工 is expected to rise at a high level, downstream demand is expected to be weak. The 09 contract is expected to fluctuate in the short term, with a pressure level at 2510. It is recommended to wait and see or short on rebounds [3]. - Crude Oil: OPEC+ maintains its production - increasing stance, and actual production release is slow. It is recommended to wait and see [5]. Chemical Products - PTA: PTA device maintenance is average, with new production expectations. Downstream polyester factories are likely to cut production in July, and terminal demand is weak. It is recommended to wait and see [5]. - Manganese Silicon: Coke prices may rise, and power costs are hard to reduce. However, port inventories are rising, and ore prices lack support. The supply - demand relationship may become looser. It is expected to fluctuate in the short term [10]. Agricultural Products - Pig: The national pig price is weak in the short term due to increased supply and weak demand. There is a short - term bullish expectation from the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs. It is recommended to wait and see and short at appropriate times [6]. - Palm Oil: Indonesian fundamentals are positive, and Malaysian production increased in the first 20 days of July. The price is expected to fluctuate at a high level [7]. - Rubber: Raw material prices are firm due to weather, and inventory has slightly decreased. Tire开工 has rebounded, but there is still pressure on the price. It may correct in the short term. It is recommended to wait and see or short [8]. - Soybean Meal: There is a game between "weak reality" and "strong expectation". There is an inventory - accumulation expectation with a large amount of soybeans arriving. It is recommended to take profit on long positions and wait and see [9]. Metals - Silver: The struggle between the Fed and the White House over interest - rate cuts continues. Before the end - of - July interest - rate meeting, silver is mainly bullish and may fluctuate at a high level [13]. - Gold: US tariff negotiations increase global economic pressure. The dollar's downward momentum weakens, and gold may enter a slightly bearish oscillation trend [14]. - Soda Ash: The domestic soda - ash market is stable and slightly bullish. The 09 contract is expected to fluctuate in the short term, with a pressure level at 1350. It is recommended to wait and see or short [15]. Construction Materials - Rebar: Steel prices are driven up by cost increases but face a callback risk in the second half of the week due to weak demand in the high - temperature off - season [10]. Bonds - Long - and Medium - Term Treasury Bonds: Before the July Politburo meeting, policies are expected to increase fiscal support, which is bearish for bonds. The main logic of the bond market is unclear, and the stock - bond seesaw effect should be noted [11]. - Short - Term Treasury Bonds: Market expectations of a short - term interest - rate decline are positive for short - term bonds. However, the bond market is still affected by the stock - bond seesaw, and the overall fundamentals are bearish [11]. Plastics - Plastic: LLDPE supply has pressure, and downstream demand is in the off - season. The L 09 contract is expected to fluctuate in the short term, with a pressure level at 7400. It is recommended to wait and see [13].