西南期货早间评论-20250724

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The report provides a comprehensive analysis of various futures, including their market conditions, influencing factors, and investment suggestions. It suggests that the long - term trends of some commodities are positive, while others are expected to be range - bound or have short - term risks [5][10][14]. 3. Summaries by Categories Bonds - Market Performance: The previous trading day saw government bond futures close lower across the board, with the 30 - year, 10 - year, 5 - year, and 2 - year main contracts down 0.21%, 0.11%, 0.09%, and 0.03% respectively. The central bank conducted a 7 - day reverse repurchase operation of 150.5 billion yuan, resulting in a net withdrawal of 369.6 billion yuan [5]. - Analysis: The macro - economic recovery momentum needs to be strengthened, and the monetary policy is expected to remain loose. The bond yield is relatively low, and there is uncertainty in the Sino - US trade agreement. It is expected that there will be no obvious trend in the bond market, and caution is advised [6][7]. Stock Index Futures - Market Performance: The previous trading day, stock index futures showed mixed results. The main contracts of CSI 300 (IF), SSE 50 (IH), CSI 500 (IC), and CSI 1000 (IM) had changes of 0.31%, 0.48%, 0.13%, and 0.06% respectively [8]. - Analysis: The domestic economy is stable, but the recovery momentum is weak, and market confidence in corporate earnings is lacking. However, domestic asset valuations are low, and the Chinese economy has sufficient resilience. The long - term performance of Chinese equity assets is optimistic, and it is advisable to consider going long on stock index futures [10][11]. Precious Metals - Market Performance: The previous trading day, the main gold contract closed at 792.9 with a 1.03% increase, and the night - session closed at 785.26. The main silver contract closed at 9492 with a 1.05% increase, and the night - session closed at 9431 [12]. - Analysis: The global trade and financial environment is complex, and the "de - globalization" and "de - dollarization" trends are beneficial to the allocation and hedging value of gold. Central bank gold - buying and potential Fed rate cuts support the long - term bullish trend of precious metals. It is advisable to consider going long on gold futures [14][15]. Steel Products (Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil) - Market Performance: The previous trading day, rebar and hot - rolled coil futures rose and then fell. The spot price of Tangshan billet was 3120 yuan/ton, Shanghai rebar was 3230 - 3390 yuan/ton, and Shanghai hot - rolled coil was 3450 - 3470 yuan/ton [16]. - Analysis: Policy expectations dominate the market, and the actual supply - demand pattern is secondary. The supply contraction expectation of steel products is strengthened, and the short - term strength may continue. Investors can pay attention to opportunities to go long on dips and manage positions carefully [16]. Iron Ore - Market Performance: The previous trading day, iron ore futures declined slightly. The spot price of PB powder was 790 yuan/ton, and super - special powder was 670 yuan/ton [18]. - Analysis: Policy expectations boost the black - series commodities, but the supply - demand pattern of iron ore has weakened marginally. The price valuation is relatively high. The short - term strength may continue, and investors can pay attention to low - level buying opportunities [18][19]. Coking Coal and Coke - Market Performance: The previous trading day, coking coal and coke futures rose significantly [21]. - Analysis: Policy expectations lead to supply contraction expectations, and the supply - contraction policy has become a reality, which is a major positive for the supply - demand logic of the coking industry. The short - term strength may continue, and investors can pay attention to opportunities to go long on dips [21]. Ferroalloys - Market Performance: The previous trading day, the main manganese - silicon contract closed down 0.37% at 5938 yuan/ton, and the main silicon - iron contract closed up 0.90% at 5832 yuan/ton [23]. - Analysis: After entering the off - season, the short - term demand for ferroalloys has peaked, and the supply is still high. The cost has limited downward space, and if the spot losses continue to expand, long - position opportunities in the low - level support range can be considered [24]. Crude Oil - Market Performance: The previous trading day, INE crude oil rose and then fell,受阻于 the 10 - day moving average [25]. - Analysis: The decrease in US oil rigs supports oil prices, but the reduction in net long positions by CFTC fund managers shows a bearish view on the oil market. Tariff frictions and EU sanctions on Russia also restrict oil prices. Short - selling opportunities in the main crude - oil contract can be considered [26][27]. Fuel Oil - Market Performance: The previous trading day, fuel oil oscillated downward,受阻于 the 5 - day moving average. China's fuel - oil imports increased in June, and the export of marine fuel oil also rose [28]. - Analysis: The influx of fuel oil from the Middle East and Russia into Asia has led to sufficient supply and wider spot discounts. The signing of the US - Japan trade agreement is beneficial to the shipping market. Overall, fuel oil is weak, and short - selling opportunities in the main contract can be considered [28][29]. Synthetic Rubber - Market Performance: The previous trading day, the main synthetic - rubber contract closed down 1.25%, and the mainstream price in Shandong was adjusted down to 12000 yuan/ton [30]. - Analysis: The supply and demand are short - term loose, and it is advisable to wait for the market to stabilize before participating in the rebound [30][32]. Natural Rubber - Market Performance: The previous trading day, the main natural - rubber contract closed down 0.17%, and the 20 - rubber contract closed down 0.54%. The Shanghai spot price was stable at around 14600 yuan/ton [33]. - Analysis: It is expected to maintain a relatively strong oscillation in the next week. The cost support has weakened, and medium - term long - position opportunities can be considered [33][34]. PVC - Market Performance: The previous trading day, the main PVC contract closed down 0.67%, and the spot price was stable. The basis widened [35]. - Analysis: The oversupply situation continues, but the downward space may be limited. It is expected to oscillate strongly in the short term [35][38]. Urea - Market Performance: The previous trading day, the main urea contract closed down 1.83%, and the price in Shandong Linyi was adjusted down to 1820 yuan/ton [38]. - Analysis: The domestic urea market will fluctuate narrowly in the short term. It is advisable to wait for policies and demand to materialize. It should be treated as bullish in the medium term [38][39]. PX - Market Performance: The previous trading day, the PX2509 main contract rose 0.12%. The PXN spread was adjusted to 270 dollars/ton, and the PX - MX spread was 100 dollars/ton [40]. - Analysis: The short - term supply - demand balance of PX remains tight, and the cost support from crude oil is insufficient. It will oscillate and adjust in the short term. It is advisable to participate cautiously and pay attention to crude - oil price changes [40]. PTA - Market Performance: The previous trading day, the PTA2509 main contract rose 0.25%, and the East - China spot price was 4772 yuan/ton with a basis rate of - 0.46% [41]. - Analysis: The supply has increased, the demand has weakened, and the cost support is slightly insufficient. It will oscillate in the short term. The processing fee is at a relatively low level, and more unplanned production cuts may occur. Interval participation is advisable, and attention should be paid to the low - level rebound of the processing fee [42]. Ethylene Glycol - Market Performance: The previous trading day, the main ethylene - glycol contract rose 0.14% [43]. - Analysis: The short - term supply pressure has eased, and the inventory has decreased. It will oscillate in the short term. It is advisable to participate in the range and pay attention to port inventory and import changes [43]. Short - Fiber - Market Performance: The previous trading day, the short - fiber 2509 main contract rose 0.03% [44]. - Analysis: The short - term fundamental driving force is insufficient, and some factories have cut production. It will oscillate with costs. Caution should be exercised regarding the repair space of the processing margin, and attention should be paid to cost changes and production - cut efforts [45]. Bottle Chips - Market Performance: The previous trading day, the bottle - chips 2509 main contract rose 0.1% [46]. - Analysis: The raw - material price is oscillating, the number of device overhauls has increased, and the inventory has decreased. The market is expected to oscillate with the cost, and risk control is necessary [46]. Soda Ash - Market Performance: The previous trading day, the main 2509 contract closed at 1338 yuan/ton with a 0.68% increase [47]. - Analysis: The domestic soda - ash market is stable and slightly strong, but the long - term oversupply situation is difficult to change. The downstream glass industry cannot provide strong support. It is advisable to be rational and not over - pursue long or short positions [48]. Glass - Market Performance: The previous trading day, the main 2509 contract closed at 1211 yuan/ton with a 0.67% increase [49]. - Analysis: Driven by macro - sentiment and some companies' price increases, the overall market has risen. It is necessary to continue to pay attention to the spot trading and regional inventory reduction of glass [49]. Caustic Soda - Market Performance: The previous trading day, the main 2509 contract closed at 2644 yuan/ton with a 1.03% increase [50]. - Analysis: The supply is relatively sufficient, and the demand support is limited. It is expected to oscillate narrowly, and it is easily affected by macro - sentiment. Risk control is necessary [51][52]. Pulp - Market Performance: The previous trading day, the main 2509 contract closed at 5414 yuan/ton with a 1.35% increase [53]. - Analysis: The supply has an expansion tendency, the downstream demand is weak, and the market is in the off - season. The pulp price is expected to fluctuate. It is easily affected by the overall commodity sentiment and foreign - market quotes, and the actual pressure in the off - season should be noted [55][56]. Lithium Carbonate - Market Performance: The previous trading day, the main lithium - carbonate contract closed down 4.07% at 69380 yuan/ton [57]. - Analysis: The supply - demand surplus situation has not changed significantly, and the supply - side disturbance sentiment has a greater impact than the actual situation. It is advisable to observe more and operate less and control risks [57][58]. Copper - Market Performance: The previous trading day, Shanghai copper oscillated downward. The average price of 1 electrolytic copper was 79750 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan/ton from the previous trading day [59]. - Analysis: The approaching US tariff on copper and the shortage of copper concentrates support the price. Long - buying opportunities in the main Shanghai - copper contract can be considered [59][60]. Tin - Market Performance: The previous trading day, Shanghai tin oscillated and rose 1.62% to 273260 yuan/ton [61]. - Analysis: The supply of tin ore is tight, but the expectation of production resumption in the fourth quarter has increased. The overall supply is still short. It is expected that the tin price will oscillate strongly [61][62]. Nickel - Market Performance: The previous trading day, Shanghai nickel rose 0.1% to 123660 yuan/ton [63]. - Analysis: The nickel market is in an oversupply situation, and the price is expected to oscillate [63]. Soybean Oil and Soybean Meal - Market Performance: The previous trading day, the main soybean - meal contract rose 0.62% to 3095 yuan/ton, and the main soybean - oil contract rose 0.02% to 8074 yuan/ton [64]. - Analysis: The supply of soybeans is relatively loose, and the import cost has increased. After the adjustment of soybean meal, long - position opportunities in the support range can be considered, and call - option opportunities in the support range of soybean oil after the decline can be considered [64][65]. Palm Oil - Market Performance: Malaysian palm oil rose, and the domestic import of palm oil increased in June [66]. - Analysis: Long - buying opportunities in palm oil after the correction can be considered [66][67]. Rapeseed Meal and Rapeseed Oil - Market Performance: Canadian rapeseed rose, and China's imports of rapeseed, rapeseed oil, and rapeseed meal changed in June [68]. - Analysis: Long - buying opportunities in rapeseed products can be considered [68][70]. Cotton - Market Performance: The previous trading day, domestic Zhengzhou cotton oscillated, and the US cotton data showed changes in production and inventory [71]. - Analysis: The global supply - demand of cotton is expected to be loose, and the short - term market follows the overall commodity rebound. It is advisable to wait and see [73][74]. Sugar - Market Performance: The previous trading day, domestic Zhengzhou sugar oscillated, and the international sugar market was affected by supply - demand factors [75]. - Analysis: The Brazilian sugar production increase expectation has been adjusted downward, and the domestic inventory is low with high imports. It is advisable to wait and see [75]. Apples - Market Performance: The previous trading day, domestic apple futures oscillated, and the 2025 - 2026 apple production is expected to increase slightly [77]. - Analysis: Short - selling opportunities at high prices can be considered [77][78]. Pigs - Market Performance: The previous trading day, the national average price of live pigs was 14.22 yuan/kg, and the main contract rose 1.67% to 14590 yuan/ton [79][81]. - Analysis: The group - farm slaughter volume will decrease at the end of the month, but the market is in the summer consumption off - season. It is advisable to hold previous short positions [79][81]. Eggs - Market Performance: The previous trading day, the average price of eggs in the main production areas was 3.34 yuan/jin, and the main contract rose 0.36% to 3637 yuan/half - ton [82][83]. - Analysis: The egg supply is expected to increase in July, and the consumption is in the off - season. A 9 - 10 reverse spread can be considered [82][83]. Corn and Corn Starch - Market Performance: The previous trading day, the main corn contract closed down 0.17% to 2321 yuan/ton, and the main corn - starch contract rose 0.11% to 2658 yuan/ton [84]. - Analysis: The domestic corn supply - demand is approaching balance, and the inventory pressure has decreased. It is advisable to wait and see. Corn starch follows the corn market [86]. Logs - Market Performance: The previous trading day, the main 2509 contract closed at 823.0 yuan/ton with a 2.08% decrease [87]. - Analysis: The supply of logs has increased, and the market has returned to the reality of the spot [87][88].