Report Industry Investment Ratings No industry investment ratings are provided in the content. Core Views - The overall commodity futures market shows a complex situation with different trends and trading strategies for various commodities. Some commodities are expected to be volatile, while others have specific supply - demand and price trends. For example, some metals are affected by supply - demand fundamentals and geopolitical factors, and agricultural products are influenced by weather, policy, and seasonal factors [1][5]. Summaries by Commodity Categories Basic Metals - Copper: Yesterday, copper prices fluctuated weakly. The supply of copper ore remains tight, and the demand shows a differentiation. The short - term trading strategy is to view copper prices as fluctuating strongly, as the US dollar index is consolidating at a key support level [1]. - Aluminum: The electrolytic aluminum plant maintains high - load production, and the demand is in the traditional off - season but with a slight increase in the weekly aluminum product start - up rate. With the upcoming policy and cost support, the aluminum price is expected to fluctuate strongly, and it is recommended to buy on dips [1]. - Alumina: The production of alumina plants is stable, and the demand from electrolytic aluminum plants is stable. The bullish sentiment is fading, and the price is expected to decline. Attention should be paid to policy and position structure changes [1]. - Zinc: The supply pressure of zinc ingots continues, and the consumption is weak in the off - season. There is a risk of a short squeeze in the LME. The short - term strategy is to wait and see, and the long - term view is bearish [1]. - Lead: The supply and demand of lead are both weak, and there is a risk of a short squeeze in the LME. The trading strategy is to operate within a range [2]. - Carbonate Lithium: The supply is expected to increase in July, and the demand is expected to improve marginally. The price is expected to turn into a wide - range fluctuation, and it is recommended to wait and see [2]. - Tin: The supply side focuses on the resumption of production in Wa State, and the demand shows a situation of weak supply and demand. Attention should be paid to the short - squeeze risk under the ultra - low inventory in London [2]. Black Industry - Rebar: The supply and demand of building materials are weak, but the inventory pressure is small. The overall supply and demand of steel are balanced, but there is a significant structural differentiation. It is recommended to wait and see, and multi - orders should be closed at an appropriate time [3]. - Iron Ore: The supply is in line with the seasonal pattern, and the demand is relatively strong. The inventory accumulation may be slower than the seasonal pattern. It is recommended to wait and see, and multi - orders should be closed at an appropriate time. A long position in the 2605 volume - to - ore ratio can be arranged [3]. - Coking Coal: The supply and demand are relatively loose, but the fundamentals are slowly improving. The futures price is overvalued. It is recommended to wait and see, and multi - orders should be closed at an appropriate time [4]. Agricultural Products - Soybean Meal: The international soybean supply is expected to be loose, and the US soybean export demand is uncertain. The domestic soybean arrival is large, and the demand is high. It is recommended to follow the international cost side and pay attention to weather and tariff policies [5]. - Corn: The remaining grain is scarce, and the demand for domestic corn is affected by substitutes. The price is expected to fluctuate after a continuous decline [5]. - Sugar: The Zhengzhou sugar 09 contract rose. The domestic sugar market is affected by imports and macro - sentiment. The later price of the 09 contract is expected to be weakly volatile [5]. - Cotton: The international cotton growth and demand show different trends, and the domestic cotton inventory is decreasing. The trading strategy is to buy on dips and operate within a range [5][6]. - Palm Oil: The supply in Malaysia is in the seasonal increase period, and the demand shows a decline in exports but support in year - on - year demand. It is recommended to be bullish in the short - term and focus on production and biodiesel policies [6]. - Eggs: High temperatures reduce the egg - laying rate, and the demand from food factories may increase seasonally, but the cold - storage egg inventory is high. The egg price is expected to be strong in the short - term [6]. - Pigs: The consumption of pigs is seasonally weak, and the supply is increasing. The pig price is expected to fluctuate and adjust [6]. - Apples: The opening price of new - season early - maturing apples has increased, and the market is waiting for the results of bag - removal. The current consumption is light, and it is recommended to wait and see [6]. Energy and Chemicals - LLDPE: The domestic supply is increasing, and the import is expected to decrease. The demand is improving in the post - off - season of agricultural film. The short - term trading strategy is to expect fluctuations, and the long - term strategy is to short far - month contracts on rallies [7]. - PVC: The supply of PVC is expected to increase, and the inventory is accumulating. It is recommended to close short - positions and wait for policy implementation [8]. - Rubber: The raw material price is rising, and the inventory is decreasing. The price is expected to fluctuate around 15,000, and attention should be paid to the pressure level at 15,300 [8]. - Glass: The glass supply is expected to increase, and the inventory is decreasing. The trading strategy is to wait and see for policy implementation [8]. - PP: The supply pressure is increasing, and the demand is differentiated. The short - term is expected to fluctuate, and the long - term strategy is to short far - month contracts on rallies [8]. - Crude Oil: The supply is increasing, and the demand has short - term support but long - term risks. The trading strategy is to short on rallies, especially near SC530 yuan/barrel [9]. - Styrene: The supply is expected to increase, and the demand is under pressure. The short - term is expected to fluctuate, and the long - term strategy is to short far - month contracts on rallies [9]. - Soda Ash: The supply and demand of soda ash have no substantial improvement, and the inventory is high. It is recommended to wait and see [9].
商品期货早班车-20250724
Zhao Shang Qi Huo·2025-07-24 01:45