中辉有色观点-20250724

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Gold: High - level oscillation, long - term strategic allocation [1] - Silver: Bullish, with support shifted up [1] - Copper: Bullish [1] - Zinc: Cautiously bullish [1] - Lead: Rebound under pressure [1] - Tin: Rebound [1] - Aluminum: Rebound under pressure [1] - Nickel: Rebound under pressure [1] - Industrial silicon: Cautiously bullish [1] - Polysilicon: Cautiously bullish [1] - Lithium carbonate: Cautiously bullish [1] 2. Core Views - The Fed's possible over - expected interest rate cut, unclear Trump's tariff policy and regional conflicts, along with continued central bank gold purchases, support the long - term bullish trend of gold, while short - term breakthrough of the previous high requires concentrated outbreak of risk factors [3] - For copper, due to the tense global copper mine situation and its status as an important strategic resource, there is long - term confidence in its price increase [7] - Zinc supply is expected to increase while demand is weak in the long term, but short - term factors support a cautious bullish view [1][9] - Aluminum prices face pressure to rebound due to factors such as increased inventory and weakening demand in the off - season [11] - Nickel prices have limited room for rebound due to factors like high inventory and weak demand in the off - season [13] - For lithium carbonate, although the short - term fundamentals have not improved significantly, the market has priced in the easing of supply - demand contradictions in advance, and there are differences between long and short positions [15] 3. Summaries by Related Catalogs Gold and Silver - Market Review: With increased expectations of the Fed's interest rate cut and uncertain prospects of the August 1st negotiation deadline, gold and silver are at high levels [2] - Basic Logic: US data is weak, there are developments in US - EU tariffs, Powell is under pressure, and the Fed's possible over - expected interest rate cut, along with other factors, support the long - term bullish trend of gold [3] - Strategy Recommendation: Gold has strong support around 770 - 775, and the long - term bullish logic remains unchanged; silver has strong support at 9250, and a bullish approach is recommended [4] Copper - Market Review: The Shanghai copper price lost the 80,000 mark after briefly reaching it, with intense competition between bulls and bears at this key psychological level [6] - Industrial Logic: The tight situation of copper concentrates persists, electrolytic copper production is increasing, domestic social inventory is de - stocking against the season, downstream开工率 is rising, and green copper demand in power and automotive sectors offsets the insufficient demand in real estate construction [6] - Strategy Recommendation: It is recommended to hold previous long copper positions, and some can take profits. In the long - term, there is confidence in the rise of copper prices. The Shanghai copper price is expected to be in the range of [79000, 81000], and the London copper price in the range of [9700, 10000] US dollars per ton [7] Zinc - Market Review: The Shanghai zinc price is oscillating at a high level, testing the pressure of the upper - level resistance [8] - Industrial Logic: In 2025, zinc concentrate supply is abundant, domestic new smelting capacity is being released, zinc concentrate processing fees are rising, and although the demand for galvanizing is boosted, the off - season and high prices make downstream enterprises hesitant [8] - Strategy Recommendation: It is recommended to hold previous long zinc positions cautiously, not to chase the rise blindly. New speculators should wait for a pull - back to enter. In the long - term, wait for opportunities to short at high prices. The Shanghai zinc price is expected to be in the range of [22800, 23200], and the London zinc price in the range of [2750, 2950] US dollars per ton [9] Aluminum - Market Review: Aluminum prices face pressure to rebound, and alumina rebounds and then falls [10] - Industrial Logic: For electrolytic aluminum, the operating capacity is increasing, inventory is rising, and demand is weakening in the off - season. For alumina, there are disturbances in overseas bauxite supply, and the short - term supply of spot alumina is relatively tight, but the overall supply - demand structure is expected to remain loose [11] - Strategy Recommendation: It is recommended to mainly wait and see for Shanghai aluminum, pay attention to changes in aluminum ingot inventory, and the main operating range is [20300 - 21000]. Alumina is expected to face pressure during the rebound [11] Nickel - Market Review: Nickel prices have limited rebound, and stainless steel prices face pressure during the rebound [12] - Industrial Logic: For nickel, there is uncertainty in the overseas environment, the price of nickel ore may decline, and domestic nickel supply and demand are weak, with inventory accumulating. For stainless steel, the production reduction is weakening, and inventory pressure is emerging again in the off - season [13] - Strategy Recommendation: It is recommended to mainly wait and see for nickel and stainless steel, pay attention to inventory changes, and the main operating range of nickel is [122000 - 125000] [13] Lithium Carbonate - Market Review: The main contract LC2509 significantly reduces positions and declines by more than 4% [14] - Industrial Logic: In the spot market, lithium salt factories are willing to sell, and basis weakens. Although the short - term fundamentals have not improved significantly, the market has priced in the easing of supply - demand contradictions in advance, and the number of warehouse receipts is increasing [15] - Strategy Recommendation: It is recommended to mainly wait and see in the short - term, with the price range of [69000 - 73400] [15]