生猪日报：期价偏强运行-20250724

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. Core View of the Report The report predicts that the pig price will experience a period of oscillatory adjustment. The supply of pigs is expected to be abundant, which makes it difficult for the price to rise significantly. However, the price difference between 150Kg pigs and standard pigs is expected to strengthen seasonally, providing some support to the pig price. If the farming sector continues to reduce the weight of pigs or keeps the weight stable, the pig price may adjust weakly in an oscillatory manner. For the 09 contract, which has a large premium over the spot price, a light - short position can be considered, but risk prevention is necessary due to the significant influence of macro - sentiment on commodities [3]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Market Dynamics - On July 23, there were 284 registered pig futures warehouse receipts. The short - term spot price has limited room for further decline, and attention should be paid to whether the weight of pigs will continue to decrease. The main contract (LH2509) increased in price with increased positions due to positive macro - sentiment, with a position of about 67,300 lots, a maximum price of 15,150 yuan/ton, a minimum price of 14,400 yuan/ton, and a closing price of 14,590 yuan/ton [1]. 2. Fundamental Analysis - From the perspective of the number of breeding sows, the supply of pigs is expected to increase monthly from March to December, but the increase is limited. According to the piglet data, the number of pig slaughterings will increase overall in the second and third quarters of 2025. The consumption in the second half of the year is better than that in the first half. Historically, the price difference between fat and standard pigs may strengthen in an oscillatory manner. The bearish logic in the market includes slow and difficult weight - reduction in the farming sector, continuous increase in subsequent slaughterings, and limited support from demand as the third quarter is not the peak consumption season. The bullish logic includes the potential increase in frozen product inventory, strong resilience of the spot price, and limited increase in subsequent slaughterings along with the approaching of the peak consumption season in the third and fourth quarters [2]. 3. Strategy Suggestion - The view is oscillatory adjustment. The core logic is that based on sow and piglet data, the number of pig slaughterings may increase monthly until December, making it difficult for the pig price to rise significantly under abundant supply. The price difference between 150Kg pigs and standard pigs has stabilized and rebounded, which may weaken the willingness of individual farmers to reduce weight and support the pig price. If the farming sector continues to reduce weight or keeps the weight stable, the pig price may adjust weakly in an oscillatory manner. For the 09 contract with a large premium over the spot price, a light - short position can be considered, but risk prevention is needed [3]. 4. Market Overview - On July 23, the national average pig slaughter price was 14.22 yuan/kg, a decrease of 0.13 yuan/kg or 0.91% compared to the previous day. In Henan, it was 14.33 yuan/kg, a decrease of 0.15 yuan/kg or 1.04%. In Sichuan, it was 13.47 yuan/kg, a decrease of 0.1 yuan/kg or 0.74%. Among the futures prices, most contracts showed an increase, with the 01 contract rising by 2.45%, the 03 contract by 2.03%, the 05 contract by 1.88%, the 09 contract by 1.46%, and the 11 contract by 2.44%. The 07 contract remained unchanged. The main basis in Henan decreased by 360 yuan/ton or 360% [5]. 5. Key Data Tracking - The report provides data on the closing prices of futures contracts in the past 180 days, the basis of the main pig contract in the Henan region, the price difference between the 09 - 11 contracts, and the price difference between the 11 - 01 contracts [13].