宏源期货品种策略日报：油脂油料-20250724

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - The overall trend of the bulk chemical market has risen and then fallen, with the PTA market showing a narrow - range increase. PTA supply is sufficient, and the spot basis fluctuates within a limited range. The PTA processing fee is in a low - level range, and it's difficult to boost prices due to new device production expectations on the supply side and lackluster demand in the off - season. The polyester industry chain is driven by fundamentals, with weak supply - demand expectations leading to a full - line price decline. It is expected that PX, PTA, and PR will operate in a volatile manner [2] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Price Information - Crude Oil: On July 23, 2025, the futures settlement price of WTI crude oil was $65.25 per barrel, down 0.09% from the previous value; the futures settlement price of Brent crude oil was $68.51 per barrel, down 0.12% [1] - Upstream Products: The spot price of naphtha CFR Japan increased by 0.18% to $567.38 per ton; the spot price of xylene (isomeric grade) FOB South Korea decreased by 1.47% to $705 per ton; the spot price of PX CFR China Main Port decreased by 0.16% to $842 per ton [1] - PTA: The closing price of the CZCE TA main contract decreased by 0.21% to 4,784 yuan per ton, while the settlement price increased by 0.75% to 4,808 yuan per ton. The spot price of domestic PTA increased by 0.77% to 4,812 yuan per ton [1] - PX: The closing price of the CZCE PX main contract decreased by 0.38% to 6,860 yuan per ton, and the settlement price increased by 0.55% to 6,890 yuan per ton. The domestic spot price of PX remained unchanged at 6,737 yuan per ton [1] - PR: The closing price of the CZCE PR main contract decreased by 0.17% to 5,986 yuan per ton, and the settlement price increased by 0.54% to 6,012 yuan per ton. The market price of polyester bottle chips in the East China market increased by 0.33% to 6,010 yuan per ton [1] - Downstream Products: The CCFEI price index of polyester staple fiber increased by 0.30% to 6,600 yuan per ton; the CCFEI price index of polyester chips increased by 0.68% to 5,890 yuan per ton [2] Operating Conditions - The operating rates of PX, PTA factories, polyester factories, bottle chip factories, and Jiangsu - Zhejiang looms in the polyester industry chain remained unchanged on July 23, 2025 [1] - The sales - to - production ratio of polyester filament decreased by 21 percentage points to 84%; the sales - to - production ratio of polyester staple fiber increased by 7 percentage points; the sales - to - production ratio of polyester chips increased by 47 percentage points to 129% [1] Device Information - The 2.5 - million - ton PTA device of Dongying United has been under maintenance from June 28 for 40 - 45 days. The 2 - million - ton PTA device of Yisheng Hainan is expected to undergo technological transformation for 3 months starting from August 1 [2] Important Information - International crude oil: U.S. API inventory data shows that although crude oil inventory has decreased, distillate inventory has unexpectedly increased, indicating that terminal demand has not recovered. Risk - aversion sentiment has increased, and oil prices are generally weak [2] - PX: Currently, PX inventory is at a historical low, with strong bottom support. Whether PX benefits can continue to rise depends on more unexpected factors. The current dull fundamentals have been changed by unexpected situations in reforming devices, but due to the off - season of polyester consumption, there is a strong expectation of a decline in downstream operations after the significant decline in PTA processing fees [2] - PTA: In the third quarter, new PTA devices are still to be put into production, which is misaligned with PX in terms of time. PTA supply is sufficient, and the main suppliers continue to sell goods. The PTA processing fee is in a low - level range, and it's difficult to boost prices due to new device production expectations on the supply side and lackluster demand in the off - season [2] Trading Strategy - It is difficult for PTA to break through the upper pressure level. The TA2509 contract closed at 4,784 yuan per ton (down 0.25%), with an intraday trading volume of 1.17 million lots; the PX price has increased, and the PX2509 contract closed at 6,860 yuan per ton (up 0.12%), with an intraday trading volume of 228,000 lots; PR follows the cost trend, and the 2509 contract closed at 5,986 yuan per ton (up 0.10%), with an intraday trading volume of 70,200 lots. It is expected that PX, PTA, and PR will operate in a volatile manner [2]