国泰君安期货商品研究晨报：黑色系列-20250724

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Iron ore: Bullish with a neutral trend strength of 0 [2][5] - Rebar: Wide - range oscillation with a neutral trend strength of 0 [2][7] - Hot - rolled coil: Wide - range oscillation with a neutral trend strength of 0 [2][8] - Ferrosilicon: Wide - range oscillation with a neutral trend strength of 0 [2][12] - Silicomanganese: Wide - range oscillation with a neutral trend strength of 0 [2][12] - Coke: Bullish after the second price increase, with a trend strength of 1 [2][15] - Coking coal: Bullish due to supply policy constraints, with a trend strength of 1 [2][16] - Steam coal: Stabilizing with a neutral trend strength of 0 [2][20] - Logs: Fluctuating with a neutral trend strength of 0 [2][24] Core Views - The report provides daily investment outlooks and trend strengths for various commodities in the black series, including iron ore, rebar, hot - rolled coil, ferrosilicon, silicomanganese, coke, coking coal, steam coal, and logs. Analyses are based on fundamental data, macro and industry news [2][4][7] Summaries by Commodity Iron Ore - Price Movement: Futures closed at 812 yuan/ton, down 11 yuan/ton (-1.34%); import and most domestic ore spot prices declined [5] - Macro & Industry News: The Yarlung Zangbo River downstream hydropower project started on July 19, with a total investment of about 1.2 trillion yuan [5] Rebar and Hot - rolled Coil - Price Movement: RB2510 closed at 3,274 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan/ton (0.31%); HC2510 closed at 3,438 yuan/ton, up 7 yuan/ton (0.20%) [8] - Macro & Industry News: In June, total social electricity consumption was 867 billion kWh, up 5.4% year - on - year. A new round of ten key industries' stable growth work plans will be released soon. Weekly data showed changes in production, inventory, and apparent demand of steel products [9][10] Ferrosilicon and Silicomanganese - Price Movement: Futures prices of both declined, while spot prices of ferrosilicon and silicomanganese increased [12] - Macro & Industry News: On July 23, prices of different grades of ferrosilicon and silicomanganese in various regions increased. Some changes in production and procurement of ferrosilicon and silicomanganese occurred [13][14] Coke and Coking Coal - Price Movement: JM2509 closed at 1,135.5 yuan/ton, up 87 yuan/ton (8.30%); J2509 closed at 1,707.5 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan/ton (0.59%) [16] - Price & Position: Northern port coking coal quotes and CCI metallurgical coal index showed price changes. On July 23, there were changes in long and short positions of JM2509 and J2509 contracts [16][17][18] Steam Coal - Price Movement: ZC2507 had no trading on the previous day, previous opening was 931.6 yuan/ton, closing at 840 yuan/ton, down 51.4 yuan/ton [21] - Fundamentals: Southern port and domestic origin quotes of steam coal were provided. On July 23, there were no changes in long and short positions of ZC2507 [22] Logs - Price Movement: There were declines in closing prices of 2509, 2511, and 2601 contracts, with fluctuations in trading volume and open interest [25] - Macro & Industry News: The Yarlung Zangbo River downstream hydropower project started on July 19, with a total investment of about 1.2 trillion yuan [27]