长江期货市场交易指引-20250724

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Macro - finance: Index futures are rated as a slow - bull market with an upward - trending shock; treasury bonds are recommended to focus on taking profits, with a strengthening shock [6]. - Black building materials: Rebar is recommended for temporary observation; iron ore is expected to be strong with shocks; coking coal and coke are recommended for cautious trial - buying [1][8][9]. - Non - ferrous metals: Copper is recommended for range trading or observation; aluminum is recommended to be mainly observed; nickel is recommended for observation or short - selling at high prices; tin is recommended for range trading; gold and silver are recommended for range trading [1][11][20]. - Energy and chemicals: PVC, caustic soda, styrene, and rubber are expected to be strong with shocks; urea and methanol are expected to move with shocks; polyolefins are expected to have wide - range shocks; soda ash is recommended for离场观望 [1][23][36]. - Cotton - spinning industry chain: Cotton and cotton yarn are expected to be strong with shocks; apples and jujubes are expected to move with shocks [1][38][39]. - Agriculture and animal husbandry: Pigs are recommended to be short - sold at high prices; eggs are recommended to be short - sold at high prices in the short - term and long - bought at low prices in the fourth quarter; corn is expected to have high - level shocks; soybean meal and oils are expected to be strong with shocks [1][41][48]. 2. Core Views of the Report The report provides investment ratings and market outlooks for various futures products in different industries. It analyzes market trends based on factors such as macro - economic policies, supply - demand relationships, and international trade situations. For example, in the macro - finance sector, index futures are influenced by trade news and show a slow - bull trend, while treasury bonds face challenges from capital diversion and risk - preference changes. In the black building materials sector, prices are affected by factors like production inspections, supply - demand balances, and policy expectations. 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs Macro - finance - Index futures: The slow - bull trend is gradually clear, and the index center moves up due to trade news boosting market risk preference [6]. - Treasury bonds: Although the odds space of long - term and ultra - long - term yields has opened, the bond market is under pressure from capital diversion and cautious institutional behavior. It is recommended to focus on taking profits [6]. Black building materials - Rebar: The price is expected to be strong with shocks. The supply - demand relationship is relatively balanced, and attention should be paid to policy signals and crude steel production restrictions [8]. - Iron ore: The price is expected to be strong with shocks. The supply is stable, the demand is strong, and the market is influenced by trade policies and policy expectations [9]. - Coking coal and coke: Coking coal shows a supply - demand boom, and the price is strongly supported in the short - term. Coke has obvious supply - demand gaming characteristics, and the second - round price increase may be affected by factors such as steel mill profits [9][10]. Non - ferrous metals - Copper: The price is expected to be in a high - level shock. It is affected by factors such as import tariffs, inventory changes, and economic recovery expectations [11]. - Aluminum: The short - term upward space of the price is limited. Attention should be paid to inventory accumulation. Alumina is recommended for observation, and electrolytic aluminum and cast aluminum alloy are recommended for observation [13][14]. - Nickel: The long - term supply is excessive, and the price is expected to move with shocks. It is recommended to short - sell at high prices [18]. - Tin: The supply gap is improving, and the price is expected to be supported. It is recommended for range trading [19][20]. - Silver and gold: The prices are expected to move with shocks. They are affected by factors such as economic data, geopolitical situations, and tariff policies [20][22]. Energy and chemicals - PVC: The supply - demand is still weak, but it is driven by policy expectations and is expected to be strong with shocks. Attention should be paid to the support at 5100 [24][25]. - Caustic soda: The supply is high, and the demand has rigid support but slow growth. The near - month contract is under pressure, and the 10 - contract can be considered for low - buying on dips [26][27]. - Styrene: The fundamentals have limited benefits, and it is expected to be strong with shocks. Attention should be paid to the support at 7300 [28]. - Rubber: It is expected to be strong with shocks. Attention should be paid to the pressure at 15000. The raw material is firm, and the inventory shows a slight destocking trend [30]. - Urea: The supply decreases slightly, the demand has certain support, and the price is expected to move with shocks in the range of 1680 - 1850 [31]. - Methanol: The supply and demand tend to be stable, and the price is expected to move with shocks [33]. - Polyolefins: The supply pressure is large, the demand is in the off - season, and the price is expected to have a weak shock. Attention should be paid to the intervals of 7200 - 7500 for L2509 and 6900 - 7200 for PP2509 [34][35]. - Soda ash: It is recommended for离场观望. The supply is high, the demand is under pressure, and the short - term is driven by macro factors [37]. Cotton - spinning industry chain - Cotton and cotton yarn: The price is expected to be strong with shocks. The global cotton supply and demand are adjusted, and the spot market is tight [38]. - Apples: The price is expected to maintain a high - level range shock due to low inventory [39]. - Jujubes: The spot price is expected to be stable in the short - term. Attention should be paid to the new - season situation in the production area [39]. Agriculture and animal husbandry - Pigs: The supply - demand pressure still exists, and the price is under pressure. It is recommended to short - sell at high prices after the rebound [41][42]. - Eggs: In the short - term, it is recommended to short - sell at high prices, and in the fourth quarter, it is recommended to long - buy at low prices. Attention should be paid to factors such as supply and demand changes and cold - storage egg出库 [44]. - Corn: The short - term supply - demand game is intense, and the price is expected to have a high - level shock. It is recommended to be cautious when going long unilaterally and pay attention to the 9 - 1 reverse spread opportunity [45][46]. - Soybean meal: In the short - term, it is recommended to go long at low prices for M2509. In the long - term, pay attention to the weather and go long at low prices for M2511 and M2601 [46][48]. - Oils: In the short - term, pay attention to the support levels of 8000, 8900, and 9400 for soybean oil, palm oil, and rapeseed oil 09 contracts, and continue the idea of buying on dips [48][53].