合成橡胶：丁二烯港口库存低位，震荡有支撑

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - In the short term, the price center of cis - butadiene rubber will gradually move up and run strongly. In the medium term, the synthetic rubber fundamentals face significant pressure, and the increase in supply may limit price elasticity and upside potential [3] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Tracking - Futures Market: The closing price of the main contract of cis - butadiene rubber was 11,875 yuan/ton, down 225 yuan from the previous day; the trading volume was 125,082 lots, up from 121,387 lots; the open interest was 48,591 lots, down 760 lots; the turnover was 750.681 million yuan, up 20.647 million yuan [1] - Spread Data: The basis of Shandong cis - butadiene - futures main contract changed from - 100 to 125; the monthly spread of BR08 - BR09 changed from 15 to 35; the prices of North China, East China, and South China's private cis - butadiene decreased by 100, 50, and 50 yuan/ton respectively [1] - Spot Market: The market price of Shandong cis - butadiene (delivery product) remained unchanged at 12,000 yuan/ton; the prices of Qilu styrene - butadiene (models 1502 and 1712) remained unchanged; the prices of butadiene in Jiangsu and Shandong decreased by 50 and 100 yuan/ton respectively [1] - Fundamentals: The operating rate of cis - butadiene increased by 2.96 percentage points to 71.3912%; the theoretical full cost and profit of cis - butadiene remained unchanged at 12,388 yuan/ton and - 388 yuan/ton respectively [1] 3.2 Industry News - As of July 23, the latest inventory of butadiene in East China ports was about 15,700 tons, a decrease of 4,300 tons from the previous period. Limited arrival of imported vessels and weather - related delays in some vessel arrivals led to normal consumption of downstream raw material inventory and low sample port inventory [2] - As of July 23, 2025 (Week 30), the inventory of China's high - cis cis - butadiene rubber sample enterprises was 32,300 tons, a slight increase of 0.22% from the previous period. Due to macro news and rising raw material costs, the spot and futures markets were expected to run strongly, resulting in a slight decrease in sample production enterprise inventory and an increase in sample trading enterprise inventory [2][3]