国泰君安期货商品研究晨报：绿色金融与新能源-20250724

Report Overview - Date: July 24, 2025 - Report Type: Commodity Research Morning Report - Green Finance and New Energy by Guotai Junan Futures 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Report Core Views - Nickel: Macro sentiment boosts expectations, but reality limits elasticity [2][4] - Stainless Steel: Macro sentiment dominates the margin, while fundamentals determine elasticity [2][4] - Lithium Carbonate: There are significant differences between bulls and bears, and the trend may fluctuate widely [2][9] - Industrial Silicon: Attention should be paid to the upstream resumption of production progress [2][12] - Polysilicon: An industry meeting is held, and attention should be paid to market fluctuations [2][13] 3. Summary by Commodity Nickel and Stainless Steel - Fundamental Data: The closing price of Shanghai Nickel's main contract was 123,370 yuan, down 160 yuan from the previous day; the closing price of stainless steel's main contract was 12,900 yuan, down 30 yuan. The trading volume and other indicators also showed corresponding changes [4] - Macro and Industry News: Ontario, Canada, may stop exporting nickel to the US; an Indonesian nickel iron project entered the trial - production stage; some nickel smelters in Indonesia resumed production, and a cold - rolling mill planned to stop for maintenance [4][5][6] - Trend Intensity: Both nickel and stainless steel have a trend intensity of 0, indicating a neutral outlook [8] Lithium Carbonate - Fundamental Data: The closing price of the 2509 contract was 69,380 yuan, down 3,500 yuan. There were also changes in trading volume, open interest, and other indicators. The price of raw materials such as lithium spodumene concentrate also changed [9] - Macro and Industry News: The price of battery - grade lithium carbonate increased; the EU plans to ban non - electric vehicle purchases for rental companies and large enterprises from 2030 [10] - Trend Intensity: The trend intensity of lithium carbonate is 0, indicating a neutral outlook [11] Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - Fundamental Data: The closing price of the Si2509 contract was 9,525 yuan, down 130 yuan; the closing price of the PS2509 contract was 50,080 yuan, up 975 yuan. There were also changes in trading volume, open interest, and other indicators [13] - Macro and Industry News: Guizhou Energy Bureau issued a power demand response trading plan [14] - Trend Intensity: The trend intensity of industrial silicon is 0 (neutral), and that of polysilicon is 1 (slightly bullish) [15]